Ludmilla Samsonova vs Yulia Putintseva Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/21/24

Our second preview of the day from the Miami Open comes from the second round of the WTA draw, which gets underway Thursday. The men are still wrapping up their first round, but on Thursday the seeded women get involved for the first time on the second leg of the Sunshine Double. Let’s look more into our Samsonova vs Putintseva prediction in this second-round tilt. Putintseva’s win probability is only 36.1% while Samsonova is favored to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Samsonova vs Putintseva Prediction: Samsonova to Overpower Feisty Putintseva

• Prediction: Samsonova -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on March 21st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I wasn’t in agreement with the respect that Putintseva was receiving in betting markets last round, and after needing to slog out what turned out to be a close three-set win, I’m nowhere near close to believing she should be an underdog of fewer than four or 4.5 games.

For starters, she’s in tough conditions that have been sped up in recent years against a much larger server, which should put her behind the eight ball when it comes to finding cheap, quick holds of serve.

Then there’s the fact that her form and level this year simply don’t justify this kind of price.

Finally, if we look at the favorite and her form against the relatively underpowered competition, it’s hard to find a player who isn’t among the world’s top 20 that has been able to hold her off or keep a match close. My Samsonova vs Putintseva prediction is for Samsonova to cover the 3.5-game spread. 

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Liudmilla Samsonova Recent Form

After her terrible start to the year in Australia, Samsonova has had a bit more success in the last two months of play, though I’m sure she’d still have hoped for a few more wins by now as the first quarter of the year comes to a close.

The one thing I will say is that Samsonova has had some tougher draws, including an in-form (at the time) Leylah Fernandez in her first match in Doha and then the returning and big-serving Naomi Osaka in her first match in Indian Wells.

I don’t think Putintseva is anywhere near as tough as either of those women nor does she play at the level of the likes of Elena Rybakina or Marketa Vondrousova – two of the other players who have toppled her since the Australian summer.

She does, however, have a slew of wins against underpowered opponents, covering 3.5 games as the favorite in each of those victories.

I’ll side with the bigger server here and the player with the greater talent and who enjoys playing in relatively quick conditions.

Yulia Putintseva Recent Form

Putintseva has racked up 11 wins this year, but she’s taken advantage of having some nice draws, playing in weaker fields, and going through qualifying to pick up some wins at a few events.

That’s all to say, despite having nearly a dozen wins to this point, there aren’t all that many that stand out as strong, quality victories.

She does have the ability to get points started and prolong points to really frustrate better competition, but her lack of power has always placed a fairly low ceiling on her success and ranking.

We’ve seen players with decent rankings (aka talent) and power to their games beat her fairly routinely several times this year, and I struggle to see what exactly she does to prevent that from happening again on Thursday afternoon.

Samsonova vs Putintseva H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the first match the two have played in a professional capacity.

On top of the matchup advantage, I believe the Russian possesses, she also has the edge in blended hard court elo ratings (by over 100 points).

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