Dominika Salkova vs Varvara Lepchenko Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/6/24

Let’s head back to the WTA Open In Arte Angers Loire for this preview. It’s the Dominika Salkova vs Varvara Lepchenko match.

Lepchenko’s win probability is over 40%, while Salkova is favoured to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Salkova vs Lepchenko prediction is for Salkova to cover the handicap.

Dominika Salkova vs Varvara Lepchenko Prediction: Young Czech to Dispatch Veteran Lefty

• Prediction: Salkova -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 11:30 pm UK Time on December 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Opposing Lepchenko last time didn’t work out for us, but that was a bit of a misleading scoreline. Not only did she win by the slightest of margins – failing to break serve along the way – but she also faced over three times the break point chances that she generated herself.

Talk about coming up clutch. Elena Gabriela Ruse was the better player, as expected, and simply couldn’t put lobbed in serves into play and missed chance after chance.

I see a similar overvaluation on the American here, who now plays an in-form player on the rise, who can stick in longer rallies, but also play some strong attacking tennis. Salkova is also likely to have a clear edge in the physicality and movement department, something that should’ve been easily in Ruse’s corner and wasn’t on the day.

It’s important to note: we’re not opposing Lepchenko simply because we lost our last bet doing so. We need a good opponent to oppose her with and we still need to see a price that provides value. With both of those present in this market, I’m happy to have another go opposing the 38-year-old who has another several hours of tennis in her legs this week.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Dominika Salkova Recent Form

At just 20 years old, Salkova has used a slew of deep runs at ITF tournaments in the last 18 months or so to cement her status as a top-200 player in the world. I’d make the case that her form and talent are actually even better than that, and I fully expect a top-100 debut in 2025.

She can really hit through her forehand wing, her serve isn’t as attackable as so many of her peers in her age group and she can succeed across different surfaces.

Since returning from an absence of a few months in October, Salkova has played five tournaments. She has reached at least the quarterfinal stage in each one of them (including this week). She has some nice wins and half her losses have come against players with big weapons and aggressive games that managed to overpower her (one of those losses was to Jodie Anna Burrage – a player we’ve backed twice this week at another event and who she also beat a week or two prior).

Perhaps Lepchenko’s style may take some getting used to, but this is a great chance for the youngster to continue amassing points at the WTA level. This win could see her rejoin the top-150 in the world.

She hasn’t lost more than five games in either of her first two matches, so she’s certainly enjoying the conditions in Angers to boot.

Varvara Lepchenko Recent Form

Credit where it’s due. Lepchenko has somehow managed to reach the quarterfinals, despite the fact that she hasn’t looked all that impressive to this point.

Her first win came against a more clay-oriented opponent in Anouk Koevermans and required three sets. Then she beat Ruse, as I mentioned earlier, sneaking through in a pair of tiebreaks in a match that took a long time to get through two sets and saw her save 10 break points, generating just three of her own.

Her flatter hitting style and spot serving can be tough to deal with and certainly suits these conditions, but other than that, there’s little to like about her game at the moment, especially in December. She hasn’t looked great for a few weeks now, as the long season appears to be catching up to her.

I’ll be opposing her as long as she’s around in this draw and continuing to be overvalued.

Dominika Salkova vs Varvara Lepchenko H2H – Stat of the Match

It’s a battle of generations on court on Friday and as a result, it stands to reason that this is the first time they’ve played one another at the professional level.

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