Roman Safiullin vs Reilly Opelka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/5/25

Our second men’s preview from the ATP’s BNP Paribas Open features Roman Safiullin vs Reilly Opelka.

This contest is priced as evenly as they come, with both guys given an equal chance by the betting markets to beat the other. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

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Jon Reid’s Safiullin vs Opelka prediction is for Opelka to win.

Roman Safiullin vs Reilly Opelka Prediction: American Big Man Should Come Away With Win

• Prediction: Opelka to win
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on March 5th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Some may see Opelka and his service-centric game and assume he wouldn’t like slower courts, as it may reduce the effectiveness of his biggest weapon on the court. Thing is, even on slower courts, that first serve is borderline untouchable, while the speed of the courts and bounce off those courts at Indian Wells tends to give servebots like him more time to set up his shots and also has the ball bounce up nice and high into his preferred striking zone.

With a huge advantage on serve and more time on return, Opelka already has a decent advantage. Throw in Safiullin being a quick court expert and not really having any kind of successful track record in slower conditions and you’ve got the recipe for Opelka being the favourite entering this match.

I don’t think this is a 50/50 contest, so give me Opelka to advance.

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Roman Safiullin Recent Form

Considering this tournament isn’t played in his ideal conditions and he certainly doesn’t possess the upper hand in the power department, one would think that Safiullin surely has at least been in better form than his counterpart entering this match.

That assumption would be incorrect. Now, it’s entirely possible that Safiullin was hurt to start the season, but Australian hard courts were much friendlier confines for his game style and typically the kind of environment where almost all his success has come.

His 2-5 record in places he should be amassing wins is a big red flag for me. Further, his only two checkmarks in the win column came in a qualifying draw in Dubai last week against strong servers and hitters, but ones that are far more erratic than someone like Opelka (and even then he needed three sets in one win and a tiebreak in the lone straight sets victory).

Throw in a step up in competition and a frustratingly strong serve to deal and I’m keen to oppose Safiullin on the day.

Reilly Opelka Recent Form

Through 12 matches this year, Opelka has managed to put together an impressive 66.67% win rate. One of his three losses came in a final down in Brisbane via retirement against Tomas Machac, with the other two being to fellow Americans in top-15 talent Tommy Paul and Brandon Nakashima, with the latter being from a set up and in a match he seemed to lose interest in.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with his form entering Indian Wells, one of the biggest tournaments on home soil in terms of points on offer and prestige and there’s no reason I’d expect him to have that apathy in Delray Beach carry over.

The serve will still work, his baseline game is better than most tall guys who have historically had a similar serve to his and the added time he should get from the baseline should only make him more competitive from the back of the court as well.

Roman Safiullin vs Reilly Opelka H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have both been on tour for a while, yet oddly enough, this will be the first time they meet on the court in a professional capacity.

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