Safiullin vs Musetti Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/7/25

The big names are entering the fray on Friday at the BNP Paribas Open as the second round gets underway. Roman Safiullin vs Lorenzo Musetti is one of those contests, with the seeded player actually entering the 

Musetti’s win probability is only 45%, while Safiullin is favoured to win at 1.67 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Safiullin vs Musetti prediction is for Musetti to win.

Roman Safiullin vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction: Gifted Italian Being Disrespected Over Injury Concerns

• Prediction: Musetti to win
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 12:15 am UK Time on March 7th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Not going to get too deep into this handicap. Musetti is the better player on any surface relative to Safiullin, so getting him as an underdog is value regardless of where this is played. Even with injury concerns potentially factoring in, I can’t get anywhere near a 2.20 price tag.

Now, the degree to which he’s a favourite is impacted by a few things. On a quicker surface, Safiullin is much more likely to win, so maybe Musetti is a slight favourite. The injury concerns may tighten that a bit more.

Musetti didn’t withdraw early from those tournaments in recent weeks though. He was on the precipice of playing before pulling out late (after the draw had been made). He also played the quick warmup Tiebreak Tens event, and while that’s not played at full speed and is a short format, someone like Paula Badosa withdrew from even that for fear of jeopardising her Indian Wells campaign.

In other words, I’m not as concerned as the market about his fitness. We’re also betting this at Bet365, where if our player retires at any point, we get a refund.

Finally, these aren’t quick conditions, these are slow conditions. That’s where Musetti is at his best. It’s also where Safiullin is at his worst.

The Russian got us when we backed Reilly Opelka in the last round, but keep in mind, the big American was in a mood that day and served for the first set, before almost looking disinterested in the match.

I’m not taking too much from that. I’m going large on Musetti in this second round affair.

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Roman Safiullin Recent Form

The 27-year-old was absolutely terrible to start his 2025 season down under, but with the court speeds in Australia being more to his liking, there were rumours swirling that he may have been dealing with a physical knock.

He lost all three matches during the Australian summer of tennis, including a pair as a favourite (one where his opponent was about a 5.00 outsider) and then that losing skid was extended in Doha.

That Doha event was slower though and the loss was to a top player who is very good defensively and at grinding in points. Sound familiar? That’s probably because that’s exactly the type of player he squares off with on Friday.

He’s been a bit better since, qualifying for the main draw in Dubai before losing a close one against Tallon Griekspoor and beating another serve-oriented player in Opelka.

I’ll give him credit for being back near his normal level, but even still, I’m not making him a favourite in this one.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Since withdrawing after a win in Buenos Aires’ round of 16 and handing Pedro Martinez a walkover, Musetti has not had a professional match to get him prepared for this main draw.

That’s the sticking point for most bettors, surely, but I’m fine trusting someone who has played hundreds of matches on slower courts and has had time to practice and get acclimated to the way the courts are playing this year.

Musetti was okay in Melbourne, with wins against Matteo Arnaldi and Denis Shapovalov both being quality ones and a loss against the firepower of Ben Shelton in a fourth set tiebreak is nothing to be ashamed about in the third round.

The match he did manage in Argentina was also a lopsided victory, so I have absolutely no issue with how the world No. 16 was playing prior to being hurt.

Roman Safiullin vs Lorenzo Musetti H2H – Stat of the Match

The head to head is likely also playing a role in how the market is pricing this match. Safiullin actually has a 2-1 lead in that respect. The caveat? All three matches have been played in quicker conditions and the two Safiullin won were in 2019 and 2023. The most recent match – in conditions more favourable to Safiullin – was in Miami last season where Musetti won in straight sets.

If anything, Musetti being 1-1 on tougher courts for him in the last 18 months and getting this one at Indian Wells is a positive to me.

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