Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/19/24

The first of our previews for the quarterfinal Friday comes from the WTA 500 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart. Let’s look a tour Sabalenka vs Vondrousova prediction.

Vondrousova’s win probability is 41.8% while Sabalenka is favored to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Sabalenka vs Vondrousova Prediction: Sabalenka to Reach Semis Once Again in Stuttgart

• Prediction: Sabalenka to win & Sabalenka -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.64 & 1.99
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as of 1:00 am UK Time on April 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I believe this is the worst downswing in quite some time for me, but such is the business, and we look to keep firing. I like this opportunity for a few reasons. I know Sabalenka hasn’t been at her best in recent tournaments, but the quicker conditions on offer in Stuttgart and Madrid have rewarded her big serve and aggressive game in recent years and this is a manageable handicap to back her at.

If this was at four games I would likely pass, though I think I’d make this handicap an expensive four and cheap 4.5 (in other words, like a -4.25 game Asian handicap).

Vondrousova may be undervalued in matches against lesser players with weaker serves, where her elite returning can dominate, but she tends to look underpowered in a lot of matches with some of the best in the women’s game. Our Sabalenka vs Vondrousova prediction is for Sabalenka to win & to cover the -3 game handicap.

More tennis tips are up over on the expert insights page.

Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form

This is Sabalenka’s fourth time playing in Stuttgart and she’s had plenty of success so far. Though she hasn’t managed to win the title (and the Porsche that comes with it) yet, she’s made the final in each of her three prior appearances. The two women that have beaten her? Ashleigh Barty and Iga Swiatek (twice). Not the worst losses in the world.

It’s no wonder this has been one of her favorite venues among the clay court stops, either. It’s well known to play much quicker than traditional clay, with Swiatek mentioning after practice that it will take her a match or two to get used to as it is somewhere between clay and hard courts in terms of speed.

That rewards big servers and big hitters – two things that very few can do as well as the world No. 2.

Her first match against one of her good friends was a close one that saw Paula Badosa retire, but Badosa seems to give her problems regularly, with the two having met here in each of the last two years as well, playing competitive contests each time.

I like the way her power matches up with Vondrousova, and we’ll get into the results between the two a bit more in a second.

Marketa Vondrousova Recent Form

We previewed her match Wednesday with Anastasia Potapova and in that writeup, I went over the fact that she hasn’t played a whole lot this year. She’s been decent in her return from an issue she picked up in California last month, handing Potapova and Donna Vekic straight-set losses.

She’s very much a gatekeeper-type player for me though. That’s to say, those she should beat she tends to handle more often than not, but against the top players in the game, she can struggle.

I chalk that up to her incredible rally tolerance and ability to construct points, but her lack of weaponry, led to her often playing catch-up or falling behind some of the best. The track record would back that assertion up too, with Vondrousova being just 3-8 in the last year against those in the top-10. Trends aren’t my thing though, so let’s try to add some context. Against other members of the women’s “Big 3” (Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina), she’s 0-3 and has lost by an average of 6.33 games. Those are the players with elite talent and the power or spin to push her around.

She’s also seen her second serve punished in those matchups and I can’t see Friday being any different.

Even taking Sabalenka’s return to error-prone tennis and the relatively small sample size of three, I’m not sure I’d have this any lower than a four to 4.5-game handicap.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova H2H – Stat of the Match

The head-to-head also provides some promise. It’s 4-2 Sabalenka, but Vondrousova’s wins were the first two encounters between the two and happened at least six years ago when they were both teenagers. They’re much different players today, and in the last three years, Sabalenka is 3-0 with an average margin of victory of nearly seven games.

Now, those have come on hard courts and Vondrousova gains a bit on clay courts, but as a reminder, Stuttgart (and the next event in Madrid) don’t play like a traditional slow court and that should mitigate some of the surface advantage that would otherwise go the Czech’s way.

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