Casper Ruud vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/26/24

The tennis continues to heat up down in south Florida, as we approach the business end of the Miami Open. Our second preview of the day goes over Casper Ruud vs Nicolas Jarry in another ATP preview, as the men dominate the order of play on Tuesday. Jarry’s win probability is only 35.8% while Ruud is favored to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23. Our Ruud vs Jarry prediction is for Jarry to win.

Ruud vs Jarry Prediction: Big Serving Jarry Perfect Man to Upset Ruud

• Prediction: Jarry to win
• Best Odds: 2.79
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:45 am UK Time on March 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Patience can be a virtue, and waiting to oppose Ruud on hard courts that are playing a bit quicker with someone like Jarry is exactly why.

Win or lose, we’re getting a lovely price here with a huge server in the Chilean that can also hammer away with his forehand and really rush the spin-oriented slow courter.

Sure, Ruud is among the world’s top 10 and his first serve does look much better this season on hard courts, but I’m still concerned about his backhand. It tends to need a bit more time and struggles to find any depth in the court when he’s rushed by more powerful players.

Casper Ruud Recent Form

The world No. 8 has done a great job in recent weeks, reaching the finals in both Los Cabos and Acapulco, before a run to the quarters in Indian Wells.

Now, a few things about that form. Firstly, all three of those tournaments are played on much slower courts with a higher bounce that suits his game. This week, with the first-round bye, he’s only had to play a pair of matches to reach this stage. He looked far more vulnerable than one would’ve expected against the underpowered Luca van Assche and capitalized on an erratic Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

His forehand has lacked a bit of finishing power, and when he’s tried to reduce the margin on that wing and go for lines, he’s found himself missing a lot.

Throw in a player who has the game to exploit his primary weakness and who has been on absolute fire on serve, and I’m not convinced that Ruud deserves this kind of valuation, despite possessing the higher rank.

Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

Jarry is coming off an incredibly emotional win in an all-South American clash that saw one of the best atmospheres we’re likely to witness all season on the professional tour as he beat Thiago Seyboth Wild in three sets.

Now, despite needing three sets, Jarry has not broken all match, and even more impressively, didn’t even face a break point against the Brazilian.

The round (and day) before that, he outlasted one of the sport’s most hyped young guns, Jack Draper. That was one of the more impressive victories we’ve seen, considering Draper prefers quicker courts, is powerful himself, has a lefty game that picked on Jarry’s backhand, and is incredibly athletic.

I think Jarry has proven himself plenty so far in Miami, and with a well-deserved day off after those back-to-back three-setters, he should be recharged to take on Ruud.

Casper Ruud vs Nicolas Jarry H2H – Stat of the Match

The series between these two is littered with close matches. Ruud leads 2-1, having taken a three-setter in the lone hard-court clash back in Seoul in 2022.

The other matches came on clay, with Jarry winning in Geneva last year, before Ruud avenged that loss at Roland Garros in three very tight sets.

Despite being more of a clay courter, Ruud actually has a sizable lead in hard court elo rating. I’d like to see that data adjusted for court speed though. As I mentioned earlier, a lot of the success he’s had has come in completely different conditions to those in Miami.

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