Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction, Free Pick, Stats, Form, H2H, April 11th

Our final preview of the day comes a bit later on in the day in Monte Carlo, but Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz is certainly one of the marquees matches being served up at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Hurkacz’s win probability is only 35% while Ruud is favored to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 23. Our Ruud vs Hurkacz prediction is for Hurkacz to win.

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Ruud vs Hurkacz Prediction: Ruud’s Backhand Vulnerable to Hurkacz

• Prediction: Hurkacz to win
• Best Odds: 2.85
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on April 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I also think that the more Hurkacz plays on clay, the more success he’ll find. He has a serve that can cut through the clay (he was able to bomb well over 10 aces against a decent point starter in Roberto Bautista Agut on Wednesday), and his defensive, make-every-ball mentality from the baseline is something the slower courts tend to reward.

The forehand is a concern in this matchup, but that’s to be expected, considering he’s nearly a 2/1 underdog.

The form is there, the style is there and he does have an opponent who has been more vulnerable than the market would suggest. I like him at nice, high odds

Casper Ruud Recent Form

As usual, it can be tough to parse Ruud’s form this season. He has a lot of wins and has made a few deep runs…but he’s also lost several times as a pretty large favorite. That tells me that the Norwegian is a deserving member of the world’s elite players, but that he’s one of the more vulnerable among them in the right conditions.

It’s also well known that Ruud’s trophies all come at the ATP 250 level, where the competition isn’t as stiff.

Finally, we also know that last year Ruud was beaten at this tournament by another big server that could take the racquet out of his hands and take time away from him in Jan-Lennard Struff.

He’s certainly the favorite in the match, but having him win around 70% of the time might be a tad generous.

Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form

As Ruud himself joked in his on-court interview after his win on Wednesday, Hurkacz is on a roll, full of confidence, and currently the form player on clay of the ATP Tour after winning the title in Estoril last week.

He also referenced the fact that not only will the big-serving Pole likely have more cheap points on serve than him, but it’s not like he’s a servebot and he can play in prolonged rallies from the baseline. He outlasted a well-known grinding-type player in Roberto Bautista Agut with regularity in the round of 16.

With the number of close matches he plays (he’s not the greatest returner, but his serve is also too dominant to be broken often resulting in blowout losses), I do think that a fairly high odds price is value.

Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met twice before with each player taking the match played on their preferred surface. Oddly enough though, both of those matches saw the loser take a set – another indication that this matchup may be closer than the odds would indicate.

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