Ruud vs Humbert Prediction, Odds, Form, H2H, 4/12/24

The final match of the day brings us Casper Ruud vs Ugo Humbert for a spot in the semifinals at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Humbert’s win probability sits at  27.5% while Ruud is favored to win at 1.33 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 21.5. Our Ruud vs Humbert suggestion is below!

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Ruud vs Humbert Prediction: Ruud to Take Another Step Towards Biggest Career Title

Just three wins from his first-ever ATP title above the 250 level, Ruud has a great chance as a big favorite to move through to the semis.

Of course, he’ll have to deal with some of the top players in the sport in all likelihood down the line, and that’s what has stopped him in the past, but for now, advantage Ruud.

Humbert does have a few things he should be able to do in this matchup to potentially keep it close, but the flatter hitting and lower margin game, along with the disparity in clay pedigree between these two makes Ruud a deserved solid favorite in the betting markets.

I’m passing for now at the current prices, but I will say this, if the handicap somehow gets down to -3.5 games when you’re reading this, that would be a bet for me. The four-game handicap is right on the edge but just doesn’t show enough value. It’s not likely to happen, as it would take a significant amount of money to move the handicap from -4 to -3.5, but that would certainly be a buy point for me.

Casper Ruud Recent Form

After a disappointingly slow start to the season in 2023, Ruud came into the 2024 campaign looking much tougher and, more importantly, armed with a much more potent first serve.

That served him well on the quicker courts in Australia, but it’s also really helped him on his favored clay.

This data is somewhat skewed by the fact that Estoril is a 250, but he’s winning seven percent more points behind his first serve, holding at a 90% rate so far on clay in 2024 and with a better serve to go with his dominant, spin-heavy forehand and strong return game and you’ve got a player who is going to be seriously tough to beat.

Is his weaker backhand a bit of a concern against a lefty with decent pop to his forehand like Humbert? Sure. Ruud does tend to camp out on that wing though to try and get as many balls on his forehand side as possible and the antidote for opponents when he does is to go down the line with their forehand (in the case of a lefty). With a flatter ball and down-the-line shots going over the highest part of the net, that actually may not hurt Ruud all that much, since those finishing shots are the most likely to result in unforced errors.

Ugo Humbert Recent Form

After the best start to a season of his career, Humbert is having one of the best clay tournaments of his career now as well.

There’s been clear improvement on his part in the last few years and he’s been less hit-or-miss than he used to be (though there’s still an error-prone aspect to his game).

A few things to consider here. First, he’s had to come back from a set down twice already this week, and Ruud is a big step up in terms of quality of competition.

Second, he was on court until about 11 pm locally. They are last on court on Friday, but between press and post-match routines, I have to wonder if that could have an impact on this match.

If he can land enough first serves and makes a point to pick on the backhand wing of the Norwegian, then he may be able to keep this close, but this iteration of Ruud on clay seems far too dangerous for a player more suited to quicker and lower-bouncing surfaces.

Casper Ruud vs Ugo Humbert H2H – Stat of the Match

Humbert leads Ruud head-to-head 3-1, BUT his three wins have come on grass and hard courts. The one meeting on clay? It went three sets but was won by Ruud and by a margin of four games.

Factor in Ruud’s serve being much less vulnerable this season and Monte Carlo playing slower than Hamburg (the venue of their lone previous meeting on the clay) and four games may be a bit generous to Humbert, but I’d prefer to pass unless this moves down to 3.5.

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