Casper Ruud vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/18/24

The second preview to finish out the week comes from the ATP’s BNP Paribas Nordic Open in Stockholm. We look at a match with one of the better players from the region in Casper Ruud vs Tallon Griekspoor.

Griekspoor’s win probability is just under 50%, while Ruud is favored to win at 1.78 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

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Jon Reid’s Ruud vs Griekspoor prediction is for Griekspoor to win.

Casper Ruud vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction: Ruud Too Vulnerable on Hard Courts to be Favourite

• Prediction: Griekspoor to win
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 2:45 am UK Time on October 18th, 2024. 

Though the price point on Ruud here may seem a tad insulting to him, his recent performances, along with the fact that Griekspoor has the game to hold serve consistently and apply pressure to Ruud has me believing that the favorite odds here on the Norwegian are based solely on reputation and ranking.

His first serve is a little stronger than it used to be, his second serve is still too vulnerable, the forehand is still too topspin reliant and the backhand can be rushed into leaving balls short or errors.

It’s the last point that concerns me most, with Griekspoor possessing what is possibly the most underrated service game on tour.

Casper Ruud Recent Form

Ruud passed his first test this week in Lonrezo Sonego – who has been dreadful since beating a weak field to win the trophy in Winston-Salem.

Other than that, he’s been very poor this hard court summer. He lost his first matches in both Tokyo and Shanghai to players that are arguably worse than Griekspoor and he did so without winning a set in either contest.

His reputation and ranking are carrying him this time of year and though he may be a better player than most of his opponents, he certainly isn’t the better player on hard courts, where these matches are being played.

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

I’d make a case that the post-U.S. Open section of the calendar has been a good one for Griekspoor.

Sure, he’s just 5-2 (not the worst record) in that span on tour, but his losses have come against Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev – both top-5 opposition, with the latter being in a third set tiebreak, about as close as a match can be.

He’s looked really good this week, beating Pavel Kotov who went deep here last year, and then Jacob Fearnley who has surged up the rankings and had won over a dozen matches on the trot coming into that one.

His serve is very strong and his forehand can put away points with ease. He’s much more geared towards success on hard courts than his counterpart in this one.

Casper Ruud vs Tallon Griekspoor H2H – Stat of the Match

The series is tied at 2-2 between these two, but Ruud has won the only meetings that have taken place in the last three years. One of those was a third-set tiebreak, however.

Considering his current form and Griekspoor playing solid tennis, I’d side with the Dutchman in this spot.

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