Casper Ruud vs Sebastian Baez Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 5/23/24

From Lyon, we head to the other ATP event taking place this week. It’s the Gonet Geneva Open for our second preview. Let’s look at our Ruud vs Baez prediction in an all-clay courter tilt.

Baez’s win probability comes in at just over 34% while Ruud is favored to win at 1.46 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Our Ruud vs Baez prediction is for Ruud to cruise to victory

Ruud vs Baez Prediction: Ruud Cruises to Victory

• Prediction: Ruud -3.5 Games & -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96 & 2.21
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 6/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on May 23rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As you can probably tell by my staking, this is a handicap I have a far different number on than the market and I’m happy to believe in my handicap enough to stake out a large position here.

First things first, the week before grand slams, it can be tough to trust favorites. Just ask Taylor Fritz or Ugo Humbert backers from Wednesday. Thankfully, I don’t think we have that problem with Ruud.

Naturally, I can’t state this with absolute certainty, but I can look at a few indicators that lead me to believe we can rely on the Norwegian. For starters, he plays this tournament with regularity and we’ve never seen him bow out without much of a fight before. Heck, he won the trophy in both 2021 and 2022.

The other reason is that if he were here for an appearance fee without much motivation, I don’t think he would’ve bothered fighting back from a setdown in his last match. Finally, he had a bit of a physical issue in Rome and was knocked out early, so form may be top of mind entering Roland Garros as well.

Right, that’s the narrative concern out of the way. Let’s get to why I like this bet.

Tennis is a sport of matchups. Has Ruud had his hands full in the past thanks to the altitude and quicker conditions? Sure. Against bigger servers and strikers of the ball – especially those that could rush his backhand that tends to push balls back and leave them short when under pressure.

Baez is not that type of opponent. In his victories at this event since 2021, Ruud has failed to cover this handicap a few times. Almost every one of those players has had a very strong first serve and/or big, powerful groundstrokes. He should have far more time from the baseline and on return in this matchup.

Finally, as much of a clay courter as Baez is, his strong forehand is overmatched in a big way in this matchup. He’s also struggled at bigger events in Europe due to the higher level of competition. Ruud is one of the best four or five clay court players in the world right now.

Our expert insights page has plenty of other previews from around the tennis world, as well as other sports!

Casper Ruud Recent Form

The last few weeks have been a tad rough for the world No. 7, with an early departure from the Rome Masters and a slow start to his campaign in Geneva. That said, he roared back with a vengeance against Sebastian Ofner – a player who has the game profile to trouble him a bit more than Baez – and appears to be fit and ready to get back to the player we saw at the beginning of the clay swing.

Known more for his exploits in slower conditions, Ruud now gets to play someone not well-positioned to exploit his weaknesses at a few hundred meters of altitude.

Before Rome, we saw Ruud reach the final of the Monte Carlo Masters, losing to another elite clay courter in Stefanos Tsitsipas, before avenging that loss in the final of the Barcelona Open the next week – a title that was his first at a tournament above the 250 level.

There’s plenty to be positive about for Ruud ahead of the year’s second slam, and as someone who isn’t a stranger to deep runs in Paris, this may be his year to lift that elusive Coupe des Mousquetaires considering how many question marks there are around the best of the best in men’s tennis.

Sebastian Baez Recent Form

I mentioned earlier that Baez has tended to struggle in European events relative to tournaments on clay in his native South America.

The 2024 season has been no different, with the 23-year-old 18-6 overall on the surface, but the splits showing a 13-2 record in South America versus a 5-4 record during the European clay events.

Those five wins include two relatively underpowered players Sumit Nagal and Roberto Carballes Baena whom he beat this week to reach the quarterfinal stage. I need not compare those two to the level of someone like Ruud, as they’re in totally different spheres on the ATP circuit.

The better players on tour like Hubert Hurkacz and Taylor Fritz (much better comparisons for someone like Ruud)? They’ve taken four sets of five from Baez. Those two aren’t even remotely close to being natural to clay courts either.

I’m a fan of Baez’s game. I think his forehand is more impressive than he tends to get credit for, but it is overmatched consistently when playing against strong players.

Ruud vs Baez H2H – Stat of the Match

These two played twice last year, with Ruud winning both matches. Now, he only covered the -3.5 game handicap in one of the two, but his four sets won were all by a score of 6-3 or better. One poor set cost him the cover in Hamburg, but that is the danger with giving up head starts – it only takes one lopsided set the other way to cost you your bet.

I trust the matchup and talent gap here enough to go large on the -3.5 handicap in this instance though.

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