Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Varvara Lepchenko Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/4/24

The first of our previews for the day comes once again from the Open In Arte Angers Loire. It’s Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Varvara Lepchenko as the former looks to add another WTA 125K quarterfinal to her resume this season.

Lepchenko’s win probability is just under 45%, while Ruse is favoured to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Ruse vs Lepchenko prediction is for Ruse to cover the handicap.

Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Varvara Lepchenko Prediction: Ruse to Outgun Lepchenko in France

• Prediction: Ruse -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on December 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I was waiting for a chance to oppose Lepchenko this week and this is the perfect spot to do so. Though the 38-year-old has fought her way back up into the top-150 in the rankings after a lengthy ban from the sport, I do think we’re seeing her slow down a bit as the 2024 tennis season winds down.

Though her flat style works perfectly on lower-bouncing and quicker hard courts, she’s overmatched here against her Romanian counterpart, who has far more weapons, is more of a regular at the main tour level (despite her current ranking) and who looked formidable in dispatching her first round opponent.

The only question around Ruse for me is whether she can be patient on some balls that may skid through the courts and leave her with less time. In those situations, overhitting can lead to poor outcomes. Avoid doing that and it’s really tough to chart a course to victory for the veteran lefty.

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Elena Gabriela Ruse Recent Form

It’s been an odd season for Ruse, who has won a fair number of matches and boasts a fairly impressive win-loss record. Why, then, is she ranked down outside of the top-100? That comes from a lack of play from what I can tell.

She’s done well at this level in Paris and Hamburg on clay, but struggled in early rounds of main draws at bigger tournaments. Much of that comes down to draws and opponents being legitimate tour-level threats, and even in many of those losses she’s been competitive.

My point here is that Lepchenko is much closer to the players she’s managed to beat with regularity than those who have beaten her so far this season.

The matchup might be tricky for her, but other than that, she’s the more talented player by a fairly wide margin by my estimation. That holds even more true when one accounts for how Lepchenko has played and the level of player she’s come up against.

Varvara Lepchenko Recent Form

I mentioned the fact that Lepchenko hasn’t looked quite as good as she has in the past in recent matches, and who can blame her? It’s a long season and some fatigue is to be expected (another advantage Ruse should have in this department, seeing as she hasn’t played nearly as much of late).

She wasn’t convincing in wins against middling players in Midland and Charleston, she needed three sets to beat a topspin-centric clay courter in Anouk Koevermans last round and the losses have been even worse.

She lost as a favourite in each of her previous defeats, indicating to me that the market is a bit too high on her at the moment and may not be pricing in a drop in level.

Put her up against what is probably the best player she’s taken on since mid-October and I’m not expecting much from her in this contest.

Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Varvara Lepchenko H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the first meeting at the professional level between the two.

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