Arantxa Rus vs Magda Linette Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/19/24

Another preview for Friday from the WTA events on offer. Our Rus vs Linette prediction is priced fairly closely at the Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, and it’s a classic case of whether you trust the tour pedigree of Linette or the surface specialization of Rus.

Linette’s expected to win 50% of the time by the betting markets, with Rus favored to win at 1.80 odds. The handicap is one game and the total game line is 21.5. Get more of Jon Reid’s tennis picks on Expert Insights.

Rus vs Linette Prediction: Trust Clay Courter on Her Surface

• Prediction: Rus to win
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on April 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’ve taken some beatings betting-wise with backing players that have the advantage on clay courts, but I refuse to believe every bet where I back a clay courter at a cheap price against someone less proficient on the surface will lose. We can’t let small samples of past results influence future bets, and I’m going to back Rus here at a price I think is one of the worst we’ve seen on clay. Nearly as bad as Yannick Hanfmann’s price against Marc Andrea Huesler on Thursday (big thanks to the German for an absolute no-show in that one).

Rus has the spin to bother Linette who doesn’t play with a lot of it, tailors her schedule all year long to play as much clay court tennis as possible outside of the biggest events she can get into on hard courts. The kick on her serve should be tough for a more hard court-centric Linette, and I simply can’t have this as a nearly dead-even matchup. Our Rus vs Linette prediction is for Rus to win.

Read on for more expert insights.

Arantxa Rus Recent Form

It had been a rough few months since reaching the Cluj quarterfinals for the Dutchwoman. That grueling loss to Ana Bogdan kickstarted a streak of eight defeats from nine matches. Now, for the context. Six of those losses came on hard courts and two-thirds of them came in three sets.

She’s still been playing decent tennis and her lone losses so far this year on the dirt were from 6-1, 4-2 up against a seemingly improved Moyuka Uchijima on clay and in a third-set tiebreak to a tour-level regular in Katie Volynets on quicker green clay.

Her return game has been on point this week, and her 106% hold plus break percentage on the surface over the last year on the WTA circuit is a pretty strong number.

I’d expect her to continue building up her form as we enter a part of the calendar where she can make a push for a new career high ranking and break into the top 40 for the first time.

Magda Linette Recent Form

Now 4-1 on the year on the dirt, Linette’s stats have to be propping her up in the marketplace. Her hold plus break percentage is still lower than Rus’, and her 4-1 record this season on the surface is kind of skewed by a 2-1 start on the quicker green clay, and even there she was crushed by Jessica Pegula and had to come back from 0-6 down against a powerful, but erratic Dayana Yastremska.

This week saw her play a close first set before pulling away from Elsa Jacquemot and then beating a weaponless Natalija Stevanovic, who simply isn’t that good.

Now she gets the best player she’s played to date this week and easily the best clay courter of the bunch. Perhaps she can deal with the spin and hold-up, but I can’t have her winning this match well over 40% of the time.

Arantxa Rus vs Magda Linette H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone tilt between Rus and Linette ended in a Rus victory after having trailed 1-6 at the Australian Open back in 2020.

Now, that was four years ago, but it was on the surface much more favorable for Linette. One has to think that on clay, it’s advantage Rus.

Elo rating-wise, we’ve got the odd spot where Linette has the better-blended clay elo by a few points, but the raw clay data has Rus as the better player.

Safer Gambling

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