Holger Rune vs Miomir Kecmanovic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/17/25

As we wrap up the third round of play from the Australian Open, we’re also going to start to see some better matchups. It also means the value may start to dissipate as the market gets to bet on some well known players with much of the knowledge being common.

For this preview, I think we still have plenty of edge to exploit as we look to Holger Rune vs Miomir Kecmanovic.

Kecmanovic’s win probability is only 36.5%, while Rune is favoured to win at 1.51 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 38.5.

Jon Reid’s Rune vs Kecmanovic prediction is for Rune to cover the game handicap.

Holger Rune vs Miomir Kecmanovic Prediction: Rune Far Too Talented to Only be a 3.5-Game Favourite

• Prediction: Rune -4 Games
• Best Odds: 2.05
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on January 17th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m not sure if the market is overreacting to a few tilts these two had late in 2023 or if it’s overreacting to the win last round as an underdog against Hubert Hurkacz by Kecmanovic, but this handicap seems a game too low.

For starters, Kecmanovic doesn’t have the skill to match Rune if both are playing at their best. Secondly, he plays a style that’s far harder to sustain than the Dane’s. That second point becomes more relevant when you enlarge the sample as the best of five set format does relative to a best of three set match.

Finally, that win against Hurkacz didn’t impress me much considering how poorly the big-serving Pole played.

I’ll take the player with the better serve, better backhand and more athleticism on a fairly low game handicap. I also think as much as Rune can lose the plot, Kecmanovic is far more likely to be the player that struggles for stretches as well.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Holger Rune Recent Form

Though we’re still waiting for Rune to join the ranks of the elite in the men’s game, there is no doubt that his talent is there.

He’s a decent mover, he used to be a strong returner, he’s added offence to his game and his serve works very well in these conditions.

I’m hoping that his performances this week will spur him to compete at the highest levels of the sport and push Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, but we need to see that happen. His Australian summer didn’t start all that well, as he lost to Jiri Lehecka (who has now won two tuneup tournaments in as many years now).

His journey through the main draw in Melbourne has been more palatable. He’s been given tough assignments for the first two rounds against a volatile, but explosive Zhizhen Zhang and then against the massive serving Matteo Berrettini – both players that could be banana skins for seeds in early rounds.

I give major credit to him for coming through those matches and think he upped his level against the Italian in the second round.

Kecamnovic has given him trouble in the past, but certainly doesn’t possess the firepower of either of his previous opponents. This should be a pretty favourable matchup for Rune to secure his spot in the last 16.

Miomir Kecmanovic Recent Form

There’s no doubt that the 25-year-old and one time junior standout has played some strong tennis the last few weeks in Australia.

As is often the case for my handicaps though, when analysing the quality of the wins on his resume, I don’t come away all that impressed. The two guys that he’s beaten that have established themselves on the main circuit in 2025 are Alexander Bublik – well known to not take many matches seriously – and Hurkacz, who looked physically unfit from late in the first set onwards.

Other than that, he barely beat an out of form veteran who is better on clay in the opening round and a slew of Challenger or lower tour level opponents in Adelaide and Hong Kong.

I don’t mind Kecmanovic’s style of tennis, but it is a risky one, as he often tries to hit into smaller targets and when he misses, the unforced errors pour from his racquet.

This is the best player he’s played to this point in 2025 and I’m not confident his high risk style is enough, even if he’s redlining more often than he isn’t.

Holger Rune vs Miomir Kecmanovic H2H – Stat of the Match

These two played a pair of matches at the end of the 2023 season indoors, with Kecmanovic winning the first in Stockholm and Rune winning the second from a set down in Basel.

Not the most inspiring history for Rune, but he does have a way more well-rounded game, is more built for best of five set tennis at this stage in his career, despite having physical issues in tough conditions when he was younger and he has to be in the -4.5 to -5 game range for me.

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