Andrey Rublev vs Zhizhen Zhang Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/4/25

Tuesday’s previews will focus on a pair of matches from the ATP 500 tournaments on offer this week and we begin at the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam. It’s a main draw populated with some big names. We’ll start with one of them as we look at Andrey Rublev vs Zhizhen Zhang.

Zhang’s win probability is only about 22.5%, while Rublev is heavily favoured to win at 1.24 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Rublev vs Zhang prediction is for Zhang to snag a set.

Andrey Rublev vs Zhizhen Zhang Prediction: Rublev Too Heavy a Favourite for Current Form

• Prediction: Zhang +1.5 Sets
• Best Odds: 2.18
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on February 4th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

It’s been a tough start to the season for both these men, with Rublev suffering from low confidence and constrained by a game that is a tad too straightforward for today’s tennis landscape. Zhang, on the other hand, has been tasked with some tough draws and opponents from the United Cup to the Australian Open to this first round tilt with another very talented player.

Thing is, Zhang has been more competitive than people may realize if they simply look at his win-loss record. He has a big game that can hit through almost anyone when it’s one and though he’s tough to back as a favourite, when out break even percentage is down below 25%, it’s a fairly low risk proposition and it also means that just winning a set needs to happen under 50% of the time for this to be a profitable endeavour in the long run.

Throw in Rublev’s struggles that have made him look much worse than his underlying data and ranking and you’ve got a recipe for a competitive match, despite the odds being heavily tilted in one player’s favour.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Andrey Rublev Recent Form

Going back to the fall, Rublev has lost a lot. Not just against the best players either (though the ATP Tour finals were three understandable losses given the opposition). He’s lost plenty when priced up in this range, as the market continues to look at him as a top-10 player when his play is closer to that of someone ranked 20-30 in the world.

That’s created an overvaluation in my books and with losses to Bu Yunchaokete, Jakub Mensik, Francisco Cerundolo, Casper Ruud, Fabian Marozsan and Aleksandar Kovacevic all since October, I don’t see why he should be given these sorts of chances against players with decent weapons.

The game is too reliant on the serve and forehand combination, he doesn’t really work the ball around the court with any sort of intent to open space and construct points and he gets visibly frustrated on court when things aren’t going his way. For some players, it pushes them to raise their level. Suffice it to say, Rublev is not one of those players

With plenty of players in this price range and with similar profiles to Zhang having pushed and even beaten Rublev in recent months, I’m not all that scared of taking a shot with his 28-year-old opponent.

Zhizhen Zhang Recent Form

I alluded to the tough start to the year for Zhang, who hasn’t won on the ATP Tour since dismantling Thiago Monteiro at the United Cup in the first match of the 2025 season (which actually came back in 2024).

That said, losing to Taylor Fritz (a top-10 player in form), Alexander Zverev (a top-3 player whom he took a set off of) and Holger Rune (another top-15 player and that was in five sets), is nothing to be too ashamed of.

The ball striking ability is there, he’s pushed plenty of good players this season that are more well rounded than Rublev and we have a market opportunity, where there may be an overreaction to both his record and an underreaction to his opponent’s poor play over a decent time frame.

Andrey Rublev vs Zhizhen Zhang H2H – Stat of the Match

Rublev leads the all time series 3-0, but the two matches last year saw one three set victory and another in more routine fashion. Thing is, since the fall. Rublev has really struggled to play his best tennis, as we touched on above.

Rublev is just 8-11 in his last 19 matches, with drops in both his hold and break rates. Over a few tournaments, that’d be one thing. Over 11 events played with four of those being ATP 250s, that’s a concerning dropoff in form.

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