Arthur Rinderknech vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/30/25

Back to the main ATP Tour we go for our second preview of Thursday’s action in the tennis world. The lone tournament taking place this week is the Open Occitanie, so let’s look at Arthur Rinderknech vs Nikoloz Basilashvili from that 250.

Basilashvili’s win probability is under 40%, while Rinderknech is favoured to win at 1.55 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Rinderknech vs Basilashvili prediction is for Basilashvili to win.

Arthur Rinderknech vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction: Trust Volatile Hitter as Underdog in Montpellier

• Prediction: Basilashvili to win
• Best Odds: 2.63
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 9:45 pm UK Time on January 30th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m not sure I can back Basilashvili any other way than the moneyline in this match. 2.5 games are not enough, with the way Basilashvili can be prone to getting behind and just tanking out of sets.

He is, however, playing good tennis, finding a rhythm and has elite power from the baseline that once saw him win an ATP 500 tournament and rip up into the top-20.

Now, he also has a few other things going for him. For starters, his backhand is better. Secondly, his serve may not be as strong as Rinderknech, but he can keep pace given how poor his French counterpart’s return game is. He’s also far more athletic and moves much more effectively on court. Finally, with the conditions a tad slower, he should have time to set up his shots. In quicker conditions, not only would the Rinderknech power be more effective, but it would also rush Basilashvili who doesn’t really play defensive tennis when he should.

I know opposing Rinderknech failed last round, but the first two sets did go Mayot’s way on the scorelines, and I think we’re still seeing the Frenchman priced up as though these were typical indoor conditions.

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Arthur Rinderknech Recent Form

Rinderknech earned his first win of the season in the last round, needing three sets and an eventually-fatigued Mayot to get through. It was a very dicey first few sets though and as we said in the last preview featuring the tall Frenchman, it shouldn’t come as the biggest of surprises.

He has a game made for quicker courts, without much movement, consistency or much of a backhand to hold up in slower conditions.

Now he’s playing a guy he can’t push around from the baseline and who has a better serve that he’ll struggle to pick on as much, and yet, he’s a similar sized favourite? I can’t have that. Even if he wins, I don’t think there’s any value in the Rinderknech side.

Nikoloz Basilashvili Recent Form

I think Basilashvili deserves some serious credit for the form he’s managed to put together early in 2025. For starters, he’s managed eight wins already (yes, five have come in qualifying matches) – a number that took him until March to reach in 2024, and the majority of those were at the ITF level.

Further, some of those wins have come against pretty talented players like Matteo Gigante, Marc Andrea Huesler, Francesco Passaro and a tricky opponent style wise in Mikhail Kukushkin.

I’m not going to go as far as to say he’s back, but his return to the top-150 seems imminent (he can secure said return with a win here) and with a spot in Rotterdam qualifying secured for next week (keep that in mind should he win and be scheduled to play Friday in the quarterfinals), he may very well be eyeing a return to the top-100.

I don’t know if the market has adjusted to his strong start to the year against some quality competition and will happily back him against a fairly one-dimensional power based opponent he can hit with from the baseline.

Arthur Rinderknech vs Nikoloz Basilashvili H2H – Stat of the Match

The Georgian has actually beaten Rinderknech twice, with the reverse result only happening once. As much as I’d like to take solace in that, it should be noted those matches all happened back when Basilashvili was a tour regular and a threat to enter any tournament he entered

That isn’t the case anymore, but I suppose it does speak to the fact that when he is hitting his spots, he is the better player.

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