Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Daniel Rincon Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/28/24

Our first preview for Thursday once again comes from the Maia Open on the ATP Challenger circuit, as we look to finally find a win in Portugal in the Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Daniel Rincon contest.

Rincon’s win probability checks in just south of 50%, while Ramos Vinolas is favoured to win at 1.75 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Ramos Vinolas vs Rincon prediction is for Rincon to win.

Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Daniel Rincon Prediction: Younger, Bigger Hitter to Win Battle of the Lefties

• Prediction: Rincon to win
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on November 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m going to look to the younger of the two left-handed Spaniards in this one, with a fairly close match leading me to see value in the underdog.

We have a contrast in the way these two will approach the match, with Ramos-Vinolas the elder, wiser and more crafty player, but incredibly underpowered relative to many players in today’s game.

On the other hand, Rincon is part of the younger generation that enjoys hitting through the ball, but also has plenty of topspin to succeed on the dirt.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Albert Ramos Vinolas Recent Form

It’s been a wonky season for the 36-year-old who has clearly declined from where he once was. It makes sense for someone who relies on precise placement from the baseline, spot serving to keep his service games from being vulnerable to constant breaks and physicality to play those longer rallies and wait for the errors.

It’s the latter point that is particularly concerning for Ramos Vinolas, who continues to get older and finds it tougher to keep up with a Challenger Tour that is seemingly getting younger and younger.

He did win a Challenger in Modena, Italy earlier in the year and has made a few clay court semifinals at this level as well, but that’s about it for 2024. By contrast, he’s lost in the first or second round over a dozen times at Challenger tournaments.

I do think he can extract errors from Rincon – and surely for a stretch here and there, he will – but I’m also not convinced he has anywhere near the game he once did. 

Daniel Rincon Recent Form

With the way he plays – big hitting, somewhat lower margin, but plenty of spin to add weight of shot – it’s not surprising that he’s a bit of a hot-and-cole player when it comes to his results.

At the moment, he’s playing pretty well. He won an ITF tournament on the dirt recently and though he lost early a week ago in Montemar, that was against a tour-level veteran and silky smooth player in Fabio Fognini, and the emotive Italian required a third-set tiebreak to get that done.

His first match here was a three-set victory over the typically undervalued and creative Denis Yevseyev and I think that should prepare him well for the underpowered, but crafty and precise lefty he takes on Thursday.

Yes, he’ll have to be able to limit his error count in this battle of different styles, but the fact this is played indoors and that Rincon is on an upward trajectory and playing strong tennis right now is enough to overcome that in my mind. I’m not making the case he’s some major favourite (as evidenced by my staking), but I certainly can’t have him just above 45% to win the match either.

Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Daniel Rincon H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time the two left-handed Spaniards from different tennis generations have met.

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