Qinwen Zheng vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/11/25

Qinwen Zheng and Marta Kostyuk will battle for a spot in the quarterfinals at the BNP Paribas Open, and the Chinese native will be the favorite to get there.

At odds of -160, Zheng has struggled to stay consistent in 2025 after a stellar 2024 campaign, but the line setters still believe she has what it takes to exceed recent expectations.

24th-ranked Marta Kostyuk isn’t about to go out without a fight, so buckle up for a lengthy battle with the quarterfinals in the balance. 

EJ Garr’s prediction for Qinwen Zheng vs. Marta Kostyuk features odds of +137, which you can find below.

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Qinwen Zheng vs Marta Kostyuk WTA BNP Paribas Open Prediction: Quarterfinals In The Balance

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +137
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 11, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Can I say it? Of course I can… We’re going the distance, baby!

First, what is Zheng doing at -160 to beat anyone ranked in the top-25?

Secondly, Marta Kostyuk must prove she belongs in the top 25 of the WTA Rankings, and an upset at Indian Wells over Zheng would do wonders for the Ukrainian’s confidence.

The fact that neither Zheng nor Kostyuk can afford an ugly loss points me to a lengthy match. BetMGM is posting an obnoxious -430 line on Zheng to win any set in this match, and Kostyuk comes in at -220 to push this to a third set.

The linesetters at BetMGM also have Kostyuk to win the first and/or second set at only +110, so now tell me she can’t at least do that today. That is not a disrespectful line, and Marta knows she can beat Zheng since she did it last year while Zheng was playing her best tennis.

Sometimes players match up with odd results, and despite the rankings or recent performances, victories over certain opponents can build a sense of confidence when facing them again.

I will count on that positive experience for Kostyuk, and expect her to carry it into this match with Zheng. If Zheng doesn’t get her game together soon, she will be out of the top 10 in short order, so she had better not flop out of another event. A 3 – 4 record isn’t a good way to keep your top 10 status.

Invest in the +137 offer from Pinnacle and grab the Over 2.5 sets prop, and let’s see which players come out on top. 

QINWEN ZHENG RECENT FORM

Qinwen Zheng is 3 – 3 to begin the 2025 campaign, and snapped a 3-game losing streak before entering Indian Wells.

Zheng opened the season at the Australian Open with no appearances to prepare for the Major, and was ousted after one win against Todoni.

The current World’s #9 lost in the first round in Doha and Dubai, and was 1 – 3 until the win over Azarenka in the second round. Zheng struggled with Lulu Sun in the third-round, despite the straight-sets win, 6 – 4, 7 – 5.

MARTA KOSTYUK RECENT FORM

Marta Kostyuk is 8 – 6 to begin the 2025 campaign, and the Ukraine native didn’t start the season particularly well. She tried to prep for the Australian Open with appearances at Brisbane and Adelaide, but neither effort produced a win.

At the Australian Open, Kostyuk went 2 – 1 and then ripped off three wins in Doha before exiting the event.

Kostyuk is only 22 years old but has produced seven straight campaigns with a winning record, and is following up a 34 – 20 season in 2024. 

ZHENG VS KOSTYUK HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Marta Kostyuk defeated Qinwen Zheng in the round of 16 at Stuttgart April, and the Ukraine native was ranked 18th, upsetting 5th-ranked Zheng in three sets.

They first met during the 2023 campaign in Montreal, and Zheng won that match in three sets.

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