Qinwen Zheng vs Iga Swiatek Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/13/25

There is no love lost between Qinwen Zheng and Iga Swiatek as they enter the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open, but the top-10 ranked opponents will clash again at Indian Wells on Thursday with a trip to the semifinals in the balance.

Since there is no love in war or tennis, emotions will be high, and whichever player can contain those feelings will come out on top. The oddsmakers have this match as a clear win for the Polska native with odds at -500 to defeat her Chinese counterpart.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Qinwen Zheng vs Iga Swiatek features odds at -116, which can be found below.

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Qinwen Zheng vs Iga Swiatek WTA BNP Paribas Open Prediction: No Love Lost at Indian Wells

• Prediction: Qinwen Zheng +5.5 Games
• Best Odds: -116
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 13, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Qinwen Zheng questioned the sportsmanship of Iga Swiatek in the past, but the Chinese native finally erased the 6-match losing skid to the former #1 at the Olympics in Paris last year.

These two won’t be sitting down for dinner at the same table anytime soon, and when I saw this potential clash happening again, I was hoping we would be covering this high-profile affair at the BNP Paribas Open.

I lost my bet on the Zheng vs Kostyuk match yesterday because I had hoped that the match would go the distance. Zheng wasn’t listening to that and swept the Ukrainian out of the event, 6 – 3, 6 – 2. The Chinese native broke Kostyuk five times and took advantage of seven double faults, making her life a little easier to advance.

As I am certain you can recall, these two played so much tennis last year, and they were among the players who complained about the length of the 2024 campaign. This is only the fourth tournament for Swiatek in 2025, and the former World’s #1 didn’t waste any time in Australia to prep for the first Major Tournament of the season.

Swiatek competed in 228 matches from 2022 through the 2024 season, and despite the limited appearances this year, she is still 17 – 4 with 21 games played.

Zheng has only computed in the same four events as Swiatek in 2025, but the results are in no way similar. The Chinese native has only four wins from trips to the Australian Open, Doha, Dubai, and Indian Wells, with three of those wins found this week.

I expect Zheng to give Swiatek a fight today, so the +5.5 games at -116 will be my suggested bet from this high-profile match at the BNP Paribas Open.

QINWEN ZHENG RECENT FORM

Qinwen Zheng didn’t pick up a racquet for two months after the WTA Finals, skipping the entire preparation for the Australian Open.

Auspicious start to the season led to one win at the Australian Open against Anca Todoni, and losses to Laura Siegemund, Ons Jabeur, and Peyton Stearns has the Chinese native facing a 1 – 3 record to start 2025.

Straight set wins over Azarenka, Sun, and Kostyuk have produced a 3-game win streak at Indian Wells, but none of it will matter without a strong showing against her rival on the court today.

IGA SWIATEK RECENT FORM

The current #2-ranked Polska native has claimed 17 victories from 21 outings in 2025, and has yet to win any hardware to begin the campaign. 

Swiatek opened the campaign with two wins at the WTL, and followed that effort with a 4 – 1 record at the United Cup before entering the Australian Open.

Swiatek was a semifinalist at the first Major after the loss to Madison Keys, and Swiatek reached the same stage in Doha before losing to Jelena Ostapenko.

Swiatek went 2 – 0 in Dubai before running into a hot Mirra Andreeva who ousted the Polska native out of the event early. With three wins this week, we are now at today’s match, and Swiatek is a heavy favorite to reach her first final of 2025.

ZHENG VS SWIATEK HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Iga Swiatek won the first six meetings with Qinwen Zheng, but the Chinese native finally snapped the streak last year at the Olympic Games in Paris.

Zheng hoisted the Gold Medal while Iga tried to stand proud with the Bronze Medal, although we knew the Polska native isn’t happy about it.

Three of the first four meetings went to a third set, and we certainly have the potential for that today. BetMGM is offering +130 odds for Zheng to win any set in this match… Hint! 

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