Purcell vs Carreno Busta Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, August 15th

For our second preview of the day from the ATP draw at the Cincinnati Open, let’s look at Max Purcell vs Pablo Carreno Busta. Our Purcell vs Carreno Busta prediction at 2.10 odds is available below.

Carreno Busta’s win probability is a tad under 50%, while Purcell is favoured to win at 1.73 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 23.

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Max Purcell vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction: Returning Carreno Busta an Undeserved Underdog

• Prediction: Carreno Busta to win
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 3:00 am UK Time on August 15th, 2024. 

Don’t let Carreno Busta’s ranking fool you. For those newer to tennis betting, it’s important to note that he was once a top-10 player, Masters 1000 champion and a constant presence in the world’s top-25.

So why is he ranked outside the top-500 now, you ask? Injury. In our sport, once a player is gone for a year, their rankings points disappear as well. They can enter tournaments with the ranking they had when they left for a little while in an effort to rebuild it, which is why we’re seeing the Spaniard back on tour more regularly. More importantly, he’s playing some decent tennis.

The market hasn’t caught on just yet though. He needed some time to shake off the rust, but in recent weeks he’s been playing tour regulars week-in, week-out and he’s been competitive in most of his losses and even pulled off some upsets.

Purcell is also at his best in quicker conditions, but man can he be sloppy with errors from the baseline, doesn’t play with a lot of margin for error and likes to come to net (that doubles background pays off in that regard for him). All of those things are facets of a player’s game that the 33-year-old Carreno Busta can exploit or deal with well.

I’ll take him as an underdog here against someone who has the chops to succeed in Cincinnati (Purcell has done well here before), but could be frustrated in this particular contest. Our Purcell vs Carreno Busta prediction is for Carreno Busta.

Max Purcell Recent Form

After a spectacular season on hard courts in 2023 (including a quarterfinal run as a qualifier at this tournament, which is what has helped him stay in the top-100), it’s been disappointing for the most part as a full time tour level pro in 2024.

He found a few wins in Atlanta against a fading veteran in David Goffin and out of form Chris O’Connell, but he didn’t look good in Washington or Montreal against substandard competition.

Perhaps this is his venue and his win in the opening round as an underdog was telling, but I can’t make him a favourite as the second most talented player in the match and without a real matchup advantage to level things.

Pablo Carreno Busta Recent Form

In four tour level matches between grass courts and hard courts at the main level this season, Carreno Busta is a respectable 2-2. Sure, he began with some poor results down on the Challenger circuit, but anyone that has played as little as he has in recent times would struggle to get back up to speed.

The man known for his grinding with sneaky pace to his game has two high-odds underdog wins (including against recent Washington champion Sebastian Korda), while losing by a razor thin margin to countryman Roberto Carballes Baena and then having little left in the tank in Montreal against the talented Holger Rune after a long win against Fabian Marozsan (over 3.00 in that victory prior to first ball).

The style is what I like most here though. Carreno Busta’s serve should be fine against someone that isn’t particularly gifted on return, while his solidity from the baseline and precision hitting should be able to frustrate Purcell into errors, as well as find some nice passing shots when he looks to approach.

He’s looking as good as he has since returning to regular playing at the ATP level and as I said earlier, I think the market is a little slow in catching up to the level he’s been competing at.

Max Purcell vs Pablo Carreno Busta H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two. Purcell was a long time Challenger player and tour level doubles specialist and by the time he made it in singles at the top level, Carreno Busta was a noticeable absentee through injuries.

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