Lucas Pouille vs Harold Mayot Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 21st

We’re two days away from 16 men and 16 women earning their way into the U.S. Open main draw! The second round takes place on Wednesday. Let’s look at an all-French battle for a spot in the final round as we look for the value in Harold Mayot vs Lucas Pouille!

Pouille’s win probability is 48.5%, with Mayot coming in as the favourite at 1.78 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.

My Mayot vs Pouille prediction is for Pouille to win.

Lucas Pouille vs Harold Mayot Prediction: Veteran Frenchman to Keep Major Qualifying Win Streak Alive

• Prediction: Pouille to win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on August 21st, 2024. 

There are a few reasons to fade Pouille in 2024. Playing back-to-back days due to physicality chief among them. That’s what makes this pricing so confusing. Pouille was not on court for very long in an impressive, swift defeat of Jaime Faria – a player that carved up the ITF circuit and held his own down on the Challenger Tour to start the year.

He also played that match…Monday. You can’t possibly tell me that you’re concerned over Pouille’s ability to recover and be ready for this contest against his countryman.

Then there’s the fact that the former top-10 has a much bigger game, from his serve to his groundstrokes and should dictate play. If he’s anywhere near his best, he should come away with the victory and see himself into the third round of qualifying.

I like Mayot. He was a very strong junior player. The problem is, he seems to be limited in how much offence he can create on the court. That makes it extremely difficult for players like him to break onto the main tour, remain there and keep themselves inside the top-100.

In the right situation, I’m all for opposing Pouille due to the combination of his injury history and the fact he’s now on the wrong side of 30 (I know that feeling all too well myself). Here, though, he’s playing well and is a much stronger player.

He should be a clear favourite in this spot.

You can find more tennis previews on the expert insights page.

Lucas Pouille Recent Form

The 30-year-old has actually looked pretty darn good this summer. He has had a few early exits from tournaments, but he’s also won a Challenger at altitude on clay and then qualified without dropping a set at Wimbledon, before winning a pair of main draw matches (one via retirement). He had to pull out of the event prior to his third round encounter, but a competitive match at the Cary Challenger in his return to action, followed by a dominant win here in the opening round alleviate any concerns with injury.

As I mentioned, the day off should also help him more than most and it’s another reason I’m confident in him being priced incorrectly as the underdog.

His last three losses have also come against the likes of Thiago Monteiro (on clay), Hamad Medjedovic (the current NextGen champion and a big time prospect from Serbia) and Valentin Royer (a mercurial, but talented ball striker) coming off that withdrawal.

I think he showed us at Wimbledon that he’s still simply too strong for most qualifying fields at grand slam tournaments and unless you task him with a huge server and one of the sport’s premiere prospects, he’s going to roll through these fields.

Harold Mayot Recent Form

After a decent start to his campaign, Mayot has really hit a rough patch so far this summer. He’s just 4-7 since reaching the Ilkley Challenger final and most recently, he’s won just a pair of matches (one against a clay courter in poor form in the opening qualifying round and the other against Mitchell Krueger – a decent win, to be fair) and has been beaten comprehensively by players who can serve decently in Tristan Schoolkate and Otto Virtanen.

He’ll play another guy that fits that description in his more senior compatriot on Wednesday, and barring an injury issue from Pouille, is likely to struggle just as much.

Lucas Pouille vs Harold Mayot H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have already played one another three times this year. All came on hard courts (twice indoors and once at Indian Wells on very slow courts). Pouille has won the two most recent meetings (though one was via retirement).

The courts aren’t playing all that quickly, but I think they’re still likely to be a tad quicker than the way the indoor French courts in Montpellier and Marseille played this season. They’re certainly not as slow as Indian Wells. 

I’m eager to see who benefits. With his weapons and strong quick court play in previous years and a desire to keep points shorter these days, I’m going to go ahead and say it would be better for the elder of the Frenchmen if the courts played on the quicker side of things.

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