Alexei Popyrin vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction, Free Picks, Odds, H2H, April 16th

The third preview of Tuesday’s action comes from the Barcelona Open, this week’s biggest tournament from the ATP Tour. Let’s look at our Popyrin vs Altmaier prediction.

Altmaier’s win probability is 39.4% while Popyrin is favored to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5. Jon Reid gives his thoughts on this match and his best value tip at 1.91 odds.

Popyrin vs Altmaier Prediction: Back Better Player in Better Form

• Prediction: Popyrin -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of 2:00 am UK Time on April 16th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Hard not to like the Australians at these prices. He’s in better form and has more firepower to his game, and though Altmaier probably has more experience on clay, Popyrin has improved a great deal on the surface in recent times and has posted more impressive results, especially this year, which has seen Altmaier look pretty poor.

The fact that Popyrin possesses the power advantage means that Altmaier would need to be the more consistent of the two to pull off the upset. At the moment, he’s far too error prone and that’s just another advantage for Popyrin.

More previews and tips from five different tennis tournaments being held this week can be found on the expert insights page. My Popyrin vs Altmaier prediction is for Popyrin to cover the 2.5-game handicap.

Alexei Popyrin Recent Form

The 24-year-old has only played one tournament on the dirt so far this year, but it was a successful one. He won a pair of matches in Monte Carlo last week, coming back from a set down against the crafty Corentin Moutet and then beating a top player and the defending champion in Andrey Rublev.

He was stopped by another player near the top of the game and having a great season Alex de Minaur.

Though he’s from Australia (not exactly a hotbed of clay-court tennis), Popyrin has put together some decent results on the dirt in the last few seasons. He won a 250 title in Umag, Croatia last season and he’s looking to build on that round of 16 appearance in Monte Carlo with another strong performance in Barcelona.

He’s got a big serve, attacking game with a strong forehand, but he’s also shown far more patience to build points and pull the trigger at the right times on a surface that requires that kind of mindset.

With how poor Altmaier has been this season, this would be a disappointing match to fumble for the Aussie.

Daniel Altmaier Recent Form

Just 1-5 this year on clay, Altmaier’s struggles since Auckland haven’t been slowed down by his return to the surface his game is most comfortable on.

It’s not like he’s lost to world-beaters either, with a series of losses to players like Federico Coria, Facundo Diaz Acosta, Pedro Martinez, and Moutet. They’re all proficient dirt ballers, but none of them are near the top of the game, and for good reason.

Altmaier doesn’t have huge weapons from the baseline but can hit through both wings if he sees an open court. His first serve can also find a few cheap points and his one-handed backhand isn’t as vulnerable on slower courts.

His problem this year has been that he simply loses the plot from the baseline far too often and hasn’t been able to make up for his errors in far too many spots. Perhaps Tuesday is the day Altmaier finally gets it together from the baseline, but with the information we have at our disposal, it seems to me he’s a tad overvalued in this match.

Alexei Popyrin vs Daniel Altmaier H2H – Stat of the Match

Popyrin won the lone match between the two last summer on a quicker hard court in Cincinnati. He needed three sets and won by a three-game margin, but playing on a different surface, I’m not sure how much relevance it holds. That’s especially true, considering how poor Altmaier is playing at the moment.

The elo ratings also think that Altmaier is being given a better chance than his performances on clay would deserve. He trailed in the clay-blended elo by about 150 points. Even with a decent serve, you’d expect to see this handicap be closer to 3.5 or four games with a discrepancy like that.

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