Polina Kudermetova vs Sonay Kartal Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/10/25

Lucky Loser Sonay Kartal has reached the third round of the BNP Paribas Open, and the Brit will face Polina Kudermetova with a trip to the fourth round on the line.

Kartal enters this stage of the WTA1000 event as the favorite with odds at -160 to advance, but our WTA expert may challenge that call by the oddsmakers.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Polina Kudermetova vs. Sonay Kartal calls for a lengthy battle with odds at +143, which can be found below. 

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Polina Kudermetova vs Sonay Kartal WTA BNP Paribas Open Prediction: Fourth Round Appearance In The Balance

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +143
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 10, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Sonay Kartal is a -160 favorite, and I will question that line until they finish this match.

I wasn’t expecting to see an inflated line on either of these ladies today, but that offer seems high and if anything, it points me to the upset win for underdog. At +130, Kudermetova can upset Kartal and advance to the quarterfinals, and who would be surprised by that?

Kartal already got ousted from this event in qualifying, and after the loss to 259th-ranked Clervie Ngounoue, the Brit was called back to re-enter the fray as the Lucky Loser. She won’t be so lucky having to face Polina Kudermetova.

I will change Kudermetova to win this match in three sets. Why? Oh, the +400 odds will be enough for me to splash the pot, and the +131 for Kudermetova to upset Kartal should also be a consideration for this affair.

The Over 2.5 sets prop is listed at +143 for Pinnacle users, and although these two don’t get into many three-set altercations, we are getting one today.

BetMGM is posting -220 and -320 for each of them to win a set in this match, and since we don’t work for Tropicana, you can squeeze that juice somewhere else!

Kuermetova is following up a nice win over Ekaterina Alexandrova, and Kartal just booted Beatriz Haddad Maia out of Indian Wells. With good momentum, I see a three-setter coming our way which means… We’re going the distance, baby!

Enjoy all three plus-money offers that I handed you to start the week.

POLINA KUDERMETOVA RECENT FORM

The 21-year-old is ranked 60th on the WTA tour and has a 13 – 6 record to open the 2025 campaign.

Kudermetova was a +220 underdog against Alexandrova in the second round, and provided one of the big upsets this week at Indian Wells.

Again the underdog, Kudermetova was 0 – 3 with two losses against Alycia Parks before entering California. 

SONAY KARTAL RECENT FORM

Sonay Kartal was seeded 3rd for qualifying. After a comfortable win over Rebecca Marino, the Brit folded like a lawn chair against Clervie Ngounoue in the final match of the Third Qualifier bracket.

The Lucky Loser has been impressive since gaining entry to the main draw of the BNP Paribas Open. Two easy wins against qualifier Varvara Lepchenko and Beatriz Haddad Maia gave the Brit confidence she had lost after the hard loss in qualifying..

Kartal is ranked 83rd on the WTA Tour and is 6 – 4 to start the 2025 campaign after an impressive 52 – 9 record in 2024.

KUDERMETOVA VS KARTAL HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

This will be the first time Kudermetova and Kartal have met on the WTA Tour.

The winner of this match will likely face Aryna Sabalenka in the fourth round at the top of the upper bracket. Unless, Lucia Bronzetti comes up with the effort of her life and upsets the World’s #1.

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