Paula Badosa vs Jessica Pegula Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 9/30/24

A fourth-round clash between Paula Badosa and Jessica Pegula will ensue on Monday in Beijing and this featured match on Diamond Court will be an instant classic.

 A former player in the top 10 and a current player holding a top 10 ranking square off today and a spot in the quarterfinal of the China Open is at stake.

The World’s #3 will be slightly favored at -150 to get past Badosa who has boosted her ranking up to 19th on the WTA Tour after starting the campaign at 64th in January.

EJ Garr’s Paula Badosa vs. Jessica Pegula prediction has an expectation of a match that goes the distance so get in your action at +135!

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Paula Badosa vs Jessica Pegula Prediction: An Instant Classic in Beijing

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: 2.38
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 7:00 am UK Time on September 30, 2024.

I see Pegula listed at -150 and BWin has an even higher -175 on the American to progress to the China Open quarters but we’re not touching that stuff today.

You can only have a classic if the match goes the distance and is on a big stage although the China Open is certainly not one of those. This WTA1000 event in Beijing has been filled with empty seats and I can only hope people show up and take in this match because it will be worth the price of admission.

Can Badoda upset Pegula? You are damn right she can, and at +120 I envision plenty of bettors putting the Spaniard on the board to upset Pegula. The former World’s #8 is right back where she was before the back injury almost ended her career and Badosa can now be called a bad-ass again!

That’s a good thing, and seeing Badosa playing at this level again is awesome because there was a time we thought we wouldn’t be seeing her on the court again. 

Pegula and Badosa are both top-10 level players as far as I am concerned and this is going to be an epic 3-set clash that can’t be missed! The Over 2.5 Sets prop is the bet to make at +135.

PAULA BADOSA RECENT FORM

Paula Badosa is in great shape and her back injury is holding up thus far! Thank god for that but now that the Spaniard is back on the WTA Tour she is playing like her old self again. 

The former #8 lost to Bouzas Maniero on April 24th this year and of all places, it was a loss at the Madrid Open. Since that loss, Badosa is 24 – 7 including a run to the Washington DC title to start the North American swing in late July.

Badosa is 21 – 9 on hard courts this year and has a 32 – 16 record in 2024.

JESSICA PEGULA RECENT FORM

Jessica Pegula is 17 – 2 in her last 19 outings during a run that started when the WTA tour turned to North America. After Badosa won the title in the American Capitol, the American took the title in Toronto in the following event giving her tourney win #2 on the campaign.

Pegula is 26 – 7 on hardcourts this season and has a 38 – 12 record in 2024.

BADOSA VS PEGULA H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Pegula is officially 3 – 0 against Badosa but one of those meetings never happened. 

In March of 2022, Badosa and Pegula were set to meet each other for the first time in Miami but Paula bailed from the event due to injury.

Pegula beat Badosa last April in Charleston at the quarterfinal stage of the event with a straight-sets win, 6 – 3, 7 – 6.

The two met on August 18 of this year in Cincinnati and Pegula again got past Badosa but the match went the distance. Expect that to be the case again today!

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