Oleksandr Ovcharenko vs Khumoyun Sultanov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/31/25

What a week of tennis ahead! Three ATP 250 tournaments and a quarter of events down on the secondary Challenger Tour. We begin with the Oleksandr Ovcharenko match from the Challenger tournament in Barletta, Italy.

Sultanov’s win probability is just below 50%, while Ovcharenko is favoured to win at 1.75 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Ovcharenko vs Sultanov prediction is for Ovcharenko to win.

Oleksandr Ovcharenko vs Khumoyun Sultanov Prediction: Ovcharenko Much Better on Clay Than Odds Suggest

• Prediction: Ovcharenko to win & Ovcharenko -1.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.75 & 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on March 31st, 2025. Odds may now differ.

With the courts being red clay and Barletta not being at altitude, I’m not sure why Ovcharenko isn’t a more pronounced favourite in the betting markets.

He’s the much more solid baseliner, can grind down his opponents and while I’m not sure Sultanov is a one-trick pony, let’s just say that without quicker courts or thinner air helping him rack up cheap points with his serve, there aren’t a whole lot of positives to spot in his game.

I’ve watched Ovcharenko several times in the past few weeks and though he lacks in the serve and forehand departments a bit, it’s not as important on clay, where it’s so tough to hit through him and he doesn’t need to produce as much offensive play to win points. As for his backhand, I consider that a legitimate groundstroke and think that many players come up against him without having done their homework and learn quickly he’s not the typical player where you want to target his backhand and feed that wing as many balls as possible.

On a quick hard court, this is a very different conversation. In Barletta on the dirt, I’m going to back the Ukrainian with a decent stake.

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Oleksandr Ovcharenko Recent Form

I won’t lie to you, I’ve actually been a bigger proponent of opposing Ovcharenko in 2025 than backing him. I think the limited game often had him overvalued, but credit to the 23-year-old, he’s beaten a former tour regular in Alex Molcan and been competitive against a good prospect in Luka Mikrut and then a talented, but mercurial, Elias Ymer.

That, along with the consistent game that is well-suited to slow conditions has me stunned to see him go from fairly consistently overvalued by my estimation and numbers to extremely undervalued.

I’m not sure the reason, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth. This is one of those wagers you’d obviously love to win, but have no qualms with losing money on.

Khumoyun Sultanov Recent Form

There is no real relevant form to evaluate Sultanov on, seeing as his game differs so much from hard courts to clay. Even on his preferred hard courts, however, he’s won just two matches in his last three tournaments and those were weaker fields (one Indian Challenger and two tournaments in Greece that were Challenger 50s – the lowest on the Challenger Tour).

Out of form and shifting to a surface where his game plays is more ITF calibre than Challenger Tour level (evidenced by nearly all of his wins coming at the lowest level of professional tennis on this surface last year), I’m not optimistic he turns it around against someone that has pushed much better players in recent weeks and has been grinding away on the dirt for a few weeks now.

We’ll see if Sultanov has the patience to build points, slowly open up space and then go for the kill shot or if he’s going to grow impatient and start overhitting, which typically leads to errors.

Oleksandr Ovcharenko vs Khumoyun Sultanov H2H – Stat of the Match

We have no prior meetings between these two to analyse. It’s their first professional meeting.

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