Osaka Finds Her Form: Naomi Osaka vs Qinwen Zheng Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, News, H2H Stats, 5/13/24

Naomi Osaka and Qinwen Zheng set up for a Round-of-16 clash at the Italian Open to start week two of this WTA-1000 event in Rome on Monday. Ej Garr’s Osaka vs Zheng prediction at +133 odds is featured below.

Naomi Osaka looks to have found her groove again, as the former World’s #1 seeks her first title since the Australian Open win in 2021. Osaka has not tasted much success on clay in her career. She hadn’t won a match in Rome dating back to the 2019 campaign before her current 3-game win streak at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia.

Qinwen Zheng reached the quarterfinals in Rome last season, although her current status with a thigh injury brings concern. Zheng could not finish her first match in Madrid after an early exit in Stuttgart, and Osaka will test her mettle on Monday eyeing a quarterfinals appearance. 

OSAKA VS ZHENG PREDICTION: OSAKA Back in Form

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +133 (2.33)
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time May 13, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Osaka is still sitting at 172nd in the World WTA Rankings, but we all know that is just a number that will stay on the rise. Returning from her pregnancy has not been an easy battle, and staying consistent has eluded her since making her back on tour.

Wins over Marta Kostyuk and Daria Kasatkina were impressive over ranked opponents, and the line setters can’t seem to decide what to do with Osaka in this event. Osaka was a slight underdog against Kasatkina, and a slight favorite over Kostyuk, yet today we have a -110 on either woman to win this affair.

Zheng has a nice history on this surface which will certainly come in handy on Monday. Over the last four years, Qinwen has won at least one clay event, albeit all three of her clay wins in 2020 were ITF events. 

If you sat through Zheng’s last match against Linda Noskova as I did, her serving issues almost cost her that match. Noskova broke Zheng three times in the opening set en route to a 6 – 3 win, and that 36% first serve win percentage is just ugly. Zheng found her way eventually taking the next two sets, but that second set still presented issues with her service game.

I know that people find it tough to invest in Osaka again because she honestly hasn’t shown us signs of her dominant days. Something has changed this week, and I see her confidence growing and her game back to a form that can win matches.

Zheng’s thigh injury could be hindering her again but I still think she is good for a set against Osaka in clay. I also believe that Osaka can take a set from Zheng today, which leads me to the bet. They are going the distance, so expect a three-set match between Osaka and Zheng.

NAOMI OSAKA RECENT FORM

Osaka has three wins in Rome under her belt, and she hasn’t lost a set to Burel, Kostyuk, or Kasatkina. 

With a 3 – 2 record in 2024, Osaka has only played 14 matches on clay since 2019 and is 7 – 7.

QINWEN ZHENG RECENT FORM

Zheng has never had a losing season on clay in seven years on the WTA Tour. She earned three ITF titles in 2020 and won the Palermo event in 2023 going 11 – 4 overall last season.

With only five matches played on clay in 2024, Zheng had to leave the count in her first match in Madrid with a thigh injury but has won her first two matches in Rome. She easily dismantled Shelby Rogers in her first match but struggled with her serve against Noskova in a big way.

OSAKA VS ZHENG HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Osaka and Zheng have met one time, and Osaka earned a 2-set win in San Jose in August of 2022. Osaka took the first set and Zheng responded to take set number two before Naomi went on to win the match.

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