Naomi Osaka vs Elina Svitolina Prediction, Picks, Odds, Stats, H2H, 3/22/24

Another incredible women’s match taking place on Friday is the Naomi Osaka vs Elina Svitolina second-round tilt in the WTA draw from South Florida. The heat and humidity are ever-present down in Miami and one of the best servers in the women’s game has started to bring the heat as well. Osaka’s win probability is exactly 50% while Svitolina is favored to win at 1.80 odds. The handicap is 0.0 games and the total games line is 22. Our Osaka vs Svitolina prediction is available in the article below. 

Osaka vs Svitolina Prediction for Miami Open 2024

• Prediction: Osaka to win
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:15 am UK Time on March 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Her return points may still be catching up to her previous highs as she continues her return, but Osaka’s dominant serve is back up to speed. And on any courts that are event medium in terms of court pace, I like her chances against just about anyone at even money. Especially someone like Svitolina, who has struggled against big-hitting players on hard courts.

Now, Osaka has looked rusty at times, and she’s still just a few tournaments into her comeback, so I can see why the market is respecting Svitolina. But making the multiple-time (hard court) grand slam champ the underdog goes a bit too far.

I don’t even mind finding a bookmaker that may list a few alternate handicap markets and take Osaka up to -1.5 or -2 games either at a very cheap price! My Osaka vs Svitolina prediction is for Osaka to win in the ML market.

Jump on over to the Expert Insights section for more tennis previews from the Miami Open on Friday.

Naomi Osaka Miami Open 2024

A slow start was to be expected for the 26-year-old upon her return to pro tennis, and it did take her a little while to get going. Granted, she started 1-3, with all three losses coming to players that can hammer the ball and give her no time to get back up to speed. A few of those losses were close. That’s the power of having a serve that can find you a slew of cheap points. It helps keep things close even if your timing feels off from the baseline or on return.

Since those first events, however, we’ve seen Osaka reach the quarters in Doha. She first lost to Karolina Pliskova (though she was the better player for good portions of that match). She then lost to Elise Mertens, another top-35 to top-40 mainstay back in Indian Wells, where the conditions simply aren’t as conducive to her success.

Now she’s in Miami, where the courts have played a tad quicker the last few years, and that should help her strong service game on Friday. She looked incredible in her opening match, losing fewer than 10 points on serve in two sets. She went the entirety of the match without even facing a break point.

Now, Svitolina is a big step up in competition on a hard court from Elisabetta Cocciaretto. But she’s had her issues in the past with elite power players, and regardless of how strong the opponent is. If they’re not a top-5 returner in the game, they’re going to be reliant on Osaka’s form on serve dipping to see any real opportunities.

If she can continue to up her return points won, Osaka should be able to creep out in front and take this match down.

Elina Svitolina Miami Open 2024

Since her own return after giving birth, Svitolina has revamped her game a bit. She added more aggression than we were used to seeing in years past, even when she was at her best.

Her 2024 season has been a successful one as a result, nearly toppling Coco Gauff for the trophy in Auckland and looking dominant in Melbourne. This was before having to retire after just three games in the round of 16 against Linda Noskova.

Since then her form has been decent, though not as impressive, with losses to Swiatek and a surging Emma Navarro tough to fault her for.

It is worth noting, however, that even this year, the bigger servers she’s come up against have been the ones that have given her problems. Osaka may not be in the same elite tier overall as Swiatek and Gauff, but she does have a similar ability to generate cheap points.

That has to make one wonder whether Svitolina is going to be struggling to apply pressure on return.

Osaka vs Svitolina H2H – Stat of the Match

The series between these two is knotted at three wins apiece. But all six of those matches came before each of them took an extended period away from the tour to have children.

Needless to say, they’re both much different players from the last time they played in 2019.

Statistically, I want to look at the Osaka service game, since it’s been a big part of this preview. Per Tennis Abstract, she would rank fourth among the top 50 in hold rate if her ranking was high enough to qualify.

Though she may have taken a few matches to get back up to speed, her serve hasn’t skipped a beat. The only other players to hold serve to this point in 2024 at a rate of 80% or better? Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina – arguably the best three players in women’s tennis when they’re all healthy.

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