Genaro Olivieri vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/8/24

With the start times making it difficult once again to find two matches with value to write about at the Rolex Shanghai Masters, let’s head back to the ATP Challenger Tour to look at Genaro Olivieri vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez at the AAT Challenger Villa Maria.

Pacheco Mendez’s win probability is just above 30%, while Olivier is favored to win at 1.33 odds. The handicap is four games and the total game line is 20.5.

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Jon Reid’s Olivieri vs Pacheco Mendez prediction is for Pacheco Mendez to pull off the upset.

Genaro Olivieri vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Prediction: Underdog Can Push Home Favourite

• Prediction: Pacheco Mendez +1.5 Sets & Pacheco Mendez to win
• Best Odds: 1.91 & 3.18
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 1:15 am UK Time on October 8th, 2024. 

We’re sticking with the high variance theme today by backing another underdog with implied probabilities between 20-35%.

I’m once again higher on the underdog than the betting markets, as we get a pretty decent youngster here taking on a player who is strong on the clay but doesn’t possess big weapons for me to make him a strong favorite.

As we go over in a bit, he wasn’t a big favorite the last time this match took place. On this surface. This season.

I think Pacheco Mendez’s form is the reason for this move, but a lot of that has to do with some bizarre scheduling choices, and back in more manageable fields on a court that should reward his rigid solidity from the baseline, he very well could turn his fortunes around this week.

Genaro Olivieri Recent Form

It has been a brutal year for Olivieri (another reason I think that the Pacheco Mendez form isn’t as concerning as the market does), with a precipitous drop in the rankings. Even with quarterfinal runs in Como and Sibiu and a run to the semis in Dobrich, he hasn’t managed to climb back inside the world’s top 350.

His game just doesn’t have much offense to it, whether it be hitting-wise, variety or topspin that is tough to deal with.

He’s another guy who predicates his game on not making mistakes, with the occasional ability to punish short balls from the forehand side.

I’m not sold that consistency alone warrants this valuation though.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Recent Form

Though he made the ascent to the upper echelons of the junior rankings, I’ve never been high on Pacheco Mendez’s ability to translate that to the professional game.

He’s a bit too underpowered. He has added a bit more pop to his game since this time last year, but there is still a long way to go in that regard.

Nevertheless, he’s not taking on a really tough opponent, nor is he likely to be hit off the court by someone like Olivieri. If there was a time and place for the underpowered lefty to succeed, it would be in a South American Challenger tournament against an opponent like this.

If he can execute some decent crosscourt backhand to crosscourt forehand patterns with that spin-heavy forehand, he should be able to use the combination of precision and the kick after the bounce to make life tough on the Argentine.

Genaro Olivieri vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez H2H – Stat of the Match

Olivieri did beat the young Mexican on the clay courts of Vicenza in a Challenger match earlier this year. In that match, however, Pacheco Mendez was at 1.94 odds-wise to win. That implied win probability of over 50% is very different from the current valuation down in the 30% range.

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