Gonzalo Oliveira vs Felix Corwin Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/27/24

Our second preview of the day from the ATP Challenger Tour comes from the Manzanillo Open in the Goncalo Oliveira vs Felix Corwin match.

Corwin’s win probability is about 36%, while Oliveira is favoured to win at 1.46 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Oliveira vs Corwin prediction is for Oliveira to cover the handicap.

Goncalo Oliveira vs Felix Corwin Prediction: Oliveira Too Strong for Struggling American

• Prediction: Oliveira -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on November 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It’s another case of a player that’s simply a tier or two above his opponent at this level and being a sub-4 game favourite on the handicap being something I am happy to back.

Much like the first preview, I have Oliveira in the -4 or -4.5 game range, rather than the -3 or -3.5 we’re seeing here.

Corwin does have a half-decent serve, but I don’t think there’s anything he does from the baseline that closes the talent gap here and there’s certainly nothing he’s done in terms of results in recent times that turns my head and makes me believe he’s ready to take the next step.

Oliveira may not be a world beater himself, but he’s certainly several breaks of serve better than Corwin in a head-to-head matchup.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Goncalo Oliveira Recent Form

After a tumultuous first seven months of the 2024 season, the 29-year-old now representing Venezuela dipped back down to the ITF circuit and managed to make a string of semifinals and finals, while also lifting one trophy, allowing him to find some form and also pick up enough ranking points to get back to the Challenger Tour.

It hasn’t been all sunshine and roses, though he did manage to reach his first ever Challenger final in Brazzaville, beating Filip Jianu to win his maiden title in a week that saw him win all five matches in straight sets.

He’s had a few tough opening round draws in recent tournaments, but against lower-level opposition, Oliveira has been cruising and covering handicaps fairly regularly. With Corwin falling into that category, I’d expect another routine win on Wednesday.

Felix Corwin Recent Form

Though he’s been around for a while, Corwin has never really impressed, and outside of his first serve being decent, there’s simply very little to his game that makes me believe he’s going to have some sort of surge in his late 20s.

Corwin has never been inside the world’s top-450 for a reason, and currently sits outside the top-500. The ITF circuit is probably the best place for him to try and build his ranking, but in these late November weeks and in a Challenger 50 where rankings limits are in place, he gets the chance to ply his trade at a higher level.

I don’t think Oliveira is strong enough to be a -5 or -5.5 game favourite, even against someone like Corwin, but being a sub-4 game favourite seems like a bit of an overvaluation on the American here.

Goncalo Oliveira vs Felix Corwin H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have met.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.