Chris O’Connell vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/6/24

Wednesday previews conclude at the ATP Belgrade Open with Chris O’Connell vs Daniel Altmaier.

Altmaier’s win probability is only 37.5%, while O’Connell is favored to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s O’Connell vs Altmaier prediction is for O’Connell to cover the handicap.

Chris O’Connell vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction: Back the More Natural Hard Courter on a Low Handicap

• Prediction: O’Connell -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on November 6th, 2024. 

Money has come in on the Aussie here, but I still think a standard-sized bet is warranted on the handicap.

He has a huge surface advantage, is not going to be rushed, can stick around in long baseline exchanges, and has been undervalued a lot in recent matches (we bet on him last round at nice underdog odds successfully).

I’d still bet him out to -3 games in this spot, so even after all the money that’s come in, there’s still a bit of value remaining.

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Chris O’Connell Recent Form

We covered how O’Connell had a lot of close losses in recent times against really strong competition when we wrote up his last match. That was a one-sided win against Miomir Kecmanovic and I’m going back to the well here.

Now, I don’t want to cling on too much to that win. That was an outlier result and though I think it was a good bet, it was still an unexpected scoreline.

In this spot, he’s playing a clay courter with a decent serve, but with both having a one-handed backhand and O’Connell having the better game for lower bouncing courts (his slice is much, much better), I’m surprised we aren’t seeing this at -3 or even -3.5.

Daniel Altmaier Recent Form

Though he has a strong serve and a bit of pop on his groundstrokes, Altmaier is still a clay courter by trade. He plays with a lot of topspin and also prides himself on his ability to grind from the baseline.

He has been decent of late on indoor hard courts though, and I’m guessing that’s why the market trusts him as much as it does in this matchup.

He’s 4-2 this fall indoors, but only one win was impressive (against an upstart Challenger opponent in a third-set tiebreak) and though he played Arthur Fils tough, I’m not huge on the overall resume.

Unless he can wait out errors from an O’Connell having an off day, I don’t see him being as competitive in this one.

Chris O’Connell vs Daniel Altmaier H2H – Stat of the Match

These two split their two prior meetings. O’Connell crushed him in Stuttgart last year, while Altmaier avenged the loss in Cincinnati later that summer.

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