Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 1st

Our second preview of the day comes from the Paris 2024 Olympic Games as we look at the marquee matchup of the day! Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas on the clay of Roland Garros for a spot in the semifinals!

Tsitsipas’ win probability is about 28.5%, while Djokovic is favoured to win at 1.35 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Our Djokovic vs Tsitsipas prediction is for Tsitsipas to push Djokovic to the brink.

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction: Teaser

• Predictions:Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets & Tsitsipas to Win 
• Best Odds: 1.87 & 3.50
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & bet365
• Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 2:15 am UK Time on August 1st, 2024. 

Look, as a handicapper I try to do what makes me money and bet on prices that are poor in the betting markets. That doesn’t mean I don’t have my own personal rooting interests as well. I want to see Djokovic win this gold medal. He’s the greatest to ever play the sport and to see him complete his quest to win everything the sport has to offer would be incredible as a tennis fan.

That said, I can’t get behind him as a big favourite. I just think his prices haven’t lined up with how he’s played this year. Yes, he’s looked sensational this week. He’s played absolutely no one though. And no, the current iteration of Rafael Nadal – that struggles with much lesser competition at ATP 250s like he did in Bastad – is not stiff competition.

He hasn’t looked as strong since the surgery on his knee, and even before that I think there was a major concern this year around his offensive output on court.

Tsitsipas is at his best at sea level on clay and Roland Garros has been kind to him. Though Djokovic has dominated this rivalry (more on that later), a lot of that came years ago and on this particular surface, Tsitsipas has been competitive more often than not.

Read on for more expert insights.

Novak Djokovic Recent Form

It’s remarkable that even though he hasn’t looked his best since being crushed by Jannik Sinner in Melbourne that Djokovic has still put together a 26-7 record in 2024, with a run to the quarterfinals in Paris before being forced to withdraw with that knee injury that he had surgery for, and then a run to the final at Wimbledon as well.

Now, I think he’s had some decent draws, and he hasn’t looked the most convincing in many of those matches, but the fact remains that the legend just keeps on winning.

Tsitsipas is a bit of a tougher task though, especially at Roland Garros. The bounce, the court speed, the elevation (or lack thereof) are all conducive to success for the Greek.

How Nole tries to offset that will be interesting to watch, but I can’t have 2024 Novak Djokovic as this big of a favourite against a competent player in good conditions for his game.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

A lot of people have been quick to frame the world No. 11’s season as a disappointment, but I tend to lean more towards his year being entirely understandable.

Considering how vulnerable he is in quicker conditions and the fact that he’s elite on clay in slower environments, I’m not surprised in the least as to how his 2024 campaign has played out.

Heck, as someone that is consistently priced as one of the game’s elite across surfaces, I love it! He plays on quicker surfaces and loses as a huge favourite and by the time he gets to clay, everyone has abandoned their belief in him, only for Tsitsipas to rack up the wins.

It’s almost like some players thrive in certain conditions and not others. Tsitsipas isn’t just one of those players, but he may be the player with the largest delta between success on slower courts and success on quicker courts in the top-50.

He’s played some great tennis at different times on clay in 2024. I think he’s looked just fine (even if his first set against Sebastian Baez was uninspiring) so far in Paris. I see no reason not to trust one of the better clay courters in the world at these odds.

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas H2H – Stat of the Match

Djokovic leads this series 11-2 and more importantly 5-0 on clay. Now, there are a few caveats to go over here.

First, these two haven’t gone toe-to-toe on the dirt since 2021. Much has happened since then, and this season in particular, I don’t think Djokovic is the same player he was once.

Secondly, other than a match at altitude (tougher on Tsitsipas as he gets worse as conditions quicken), most matches have gone to a deciding set when these two meet on the dirt. That would suggest that even though he hasn’t yet beaten Djokovic on this surface, he’s been incredibly competitive more often than not. At these odds, a competitive match is all we’re looking for.

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