Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 10/11/24

There isn’t as much value in the second weeks of Masters tournaments and grand slams, but I do want to look at Novak Djokovic vs. Jakub Mensik from the Rolex Shanghai Masters as the first of our ATP previews. I want to go over a few aspects that I think people should consider prior to wagering on the match.

Mensik’s win probability is only 13%, while Djokovic is favored to win at 1.12 odds. The handicap is five games and the total game line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Djokovic vs Mensik prediction allows Djokovic to exploit Mensik’s erratic tendencies.

Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik Prediction: In Form Djokovic Should Be Too Much For Powerful Youngster

Not going to have a bet here, as there are a few things to consider. For starters, I’d want this total to be at 21 to play the under. It’s a half-game that I think is pretty important for Djokovic when taking on a strong server with solid weapons.

I will say though, that Djokovic has played his best tennis of the 2024 season at this tournament and he said as much himself after his last win. He’s absolutely swept aside each of the last two players he’s taken on and his two tiebreak win against Alex Michelsen saw him nearly take a double-break lead in the second set and dominate the stat sheet.

Then there’s the fact that he’s one of the best point starters on return in the history of the game. Along with baseline solidity, he’s almost uniquely suited to exploit the erratic play of Mensik.

On the flip side, the young Czech has looked great himself. He’s one to watch in the coming year, with a huge serve, and the ability to play across surfaces and weapons from the baseline. He has needed three sets a bit too often in matches he’s been dominating though, and that speaks to the rather inconsistent play on court.

The problem is, he could very well use the quicker conditions to send this one to a tiebreak in one set to ruin the under or he could be sent packing quickly if committing errors against the greatest to ever play the sport. It’s a bit too tough to find value on a total of 20.5 games.

Read on for more expert insights.

Novak Djokovic Recent Form

Recent is the keyword here. Trusting a small sample of hot play can be dangerous in this industry, but sometimes you do have to recognize when a player is stepping it up and doing so in a sustainable way.

That’s precisely what Djokovic has done this week and I, for one, want absolutely no part in opposing him right now.

Though he’s said that majors are his only focus nowadays and that ranking and year-end races aren’t top of mind, you’d be fooling yourself to think that if given the chance he’d say “no thank you” to playing the year-end championships.

Well, he’s in that race at the moment, and it’s highly doubtful he’ll play more after this week. In other words, he has a good chance to play in the ATP Finals if he makes it deep in Shanghai and I think that’s something else one must consider before placing a bet on this contest.

Jakub Mensik Recent Form

After a pretty poor run that is likely to do with his fitness (he retired twice in the spring and hadn’t looked right for months upon returning to action), it seems as though Mensik is finally back to feeling at his best and it’s shown in his matches to this point.

He made the third round of the U.S. Open, clobbering Felix Auger Aliassime as a big underdog and he nearly made the second week. He simply ran out of gas against Nuno Borges in that third-round tilt.

As I mentioned, he has a huge game and it certainly has staying power at this level. Big serve, a big forehand, still erratic but not to the point that he’ll be back on the Challenger circuit soon, room for growth and the surface versatility that’s key to keeping yourself on the main tour.

I wouldn’t be too surprised if he were to pull off this upset. It’s simply not likely and will likely return an extended purple patch of play from the teen.

Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two players from different generations.

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