Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 10th

The other quarterfinal at Wimbledon on Wednesday features the new highest seed in the tournament, after Jannik Sinner’s defeat on Tuesday. Let’s look at our Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur prediction.

De Minaur’s win probability is only 28%, while Djokovic is favored to win at 1.35 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 38.5.

Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur Prediction: Resurgent Djokovic to Continue Building Dominant Form

• Prediction: Djokovic -4.5 Games & Djokovic Over 4.5 Breaks
• Best Odds: 1.88 & 2.20
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & bet365
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds updated on midnight UK Time on July 10th, 2024. 

I’m going to go with a larger sizing here as well. I know that’s a risk with how much more efficient these markets tend to be, but I also have to back my numbers and handicap, and despite de Minaur’s recent competitiveness against the world No. 2, I do think Djokovic is in a good position to win this one in fairly straightforward fashion, whether it’s in straight sets or in four sets with a lopsided set score along the way.

Let me elaborate.

I believe that Djokovic at his best has much more to his offensive gameplan than de Minaur does and his all-time return game can generate sustained pressure on the Australian’s serve.

Now, he hasn’t been at his best this year. Scratch that. Hadn’t been at his best this year. Last round against Holger Rune, I am of the firm belief he played his most complete match in a long, long time.

The crisp groundstrokes were back. Some pace returned to his serve, along with the pinpoint accuracy we’re used to seeing. He came to net with regularity and his volleys looked great most importantly, he was going for those patented open stance stretches for balls when defending in the corners that I didn’t think he’d be able to bust out after having meniscus surgery just a few weeks back.

Throw in de Minaur starting well, but looking extremely vulnerable on serve not just in his last match against Arthur Fils, but also against Jaume Munar a few rounds ago when he nearly blew a 6-2, 6-2, and serving at 4-1 lead, needing a 7-5 third set to get things done in straight sets.

For those reasons, I like both the handicap, as well as the over 4.5 breaks prop over at Bet365. If this goes four or five sets, the -4.5 becomes tougher and may need a lopsided set score (which I wouldn’t be surprised to see), but the breaks get extra return games to get over the line and if Djokovic rolls in three sets, both bets should get home, as I highly doubt that Djokovic will go unbroken against a decent returner himself. Our Djokovic vs de Minaur prediction is for Djokovic to move through relatively swiftly.

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Novak Djokovic Recent Form

It hadn’t been the best season for Djokovic through the opening six months of 2024, but the now-No. 2 may just be rounding into form at the perfect time.

Even against Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin, he looked less than stellar and somewhat underpowered, and one has to wonder if that could’ve been because he was a tad late to certain balls as his movement on the grass continued to build back up.

Though his opponent in Holger Rune didn’t play well last round, I wouldn’t take anything away from Djokovic either. It was a solid performance, and with his opponent this time out not really able to take as much time away from him with powerful groundstrokes (though the depth he can generate can slow down Djokovic’s attack), I’d think the Serbian legend will smell blood in the water with one of the big two names on the other half of the draw being sent packing.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Another player that has had a relatively easy draw, de Minaur has looked both dominant and vulnerable at different stages of his matches in the last few rounds.

He was in cruise control against both Munar and Arthur Fils, but struggled to get over the line and it was his serve that really began to let him down. That could spell trouble against one of the best returners of all time.

The strengths for de Minaur are obvious. His defending and movement on the grass are sensational and his game plays up and is normally less attackable in quicker conditions.

His naturally flatter hitting is also rewarded more on grass than any other surface and his run to this point, as well as his title at the ATP 250 in ‘s-Hertogenbosch to kick off the grass swing are signs of the kind of tennis he’s been able to produce.

Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur H2H – Stat of the Match

Djokovic leads 2-1, having beaten de Minaur badly a few years ago at the Australian Open before the man known as “demon” avenged that loss on home soil in January of this year at the United Cup.

Djokovic jumped back out in front with a 7-5, 6-4 win in Monte Carlo a few months ago, but he started slow in that one.

For me, it’s all about that fact that Djokovic finally appears to be finding some of his offensive game play again.

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