Kei Nishikori vs Mariano Navone Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, June 25th

With the men off for the day in the Wimbledon qualifying, we’ll look at the ATP 250 Rothesay International. Let’s look at Kei Nishikori vs Mariano Navone.

Navone’s win probability is just under 40%, while Nishikori is favoured to win at 1.60 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Our Nishikori vs Navone prediction is for Nishikori to win with relative ease.

Kei Nishikori vs Mariano Navone (Rothesay International) Prediction: Nishikori With Favourable Matchup in Return from Injury

• Prediction: Nishikori -3 Games
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on June 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I think the only way that you can have Navone accurately priced at these odds is if Nishikori is still seriously feeling whatever caused him to retire against Ben Shelton in Paris.

Even then, with the handicap at Pinnacle, if he is hurt and ends up retiring during the match, the bet voids and you end up with your stake back.

In terms of actually being able to play on grass, Navone has barely played any professional matches off clay, with just four sets on the grass for his career. He’s been beaten soundly in each of them and is playing someone who has more experience and far more success on the lawns than him.

From past success on the grass to preferring quicker court tennis, to the matchup where Nishikori’s strong return skills should allow him to pressure Navone consistently, everything points to the former world No. 4 on Tuesday in Eastbourne.

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Kei Nishikori Recent Form

Nishikori hasn’t played a whole lot of tennis in 2024, and perhaps coming back in a best-of-five format on a surface that is as physically demanding as clay wasn’t the best idea, as he had to retire two sets into his match with Shelton.

He still looked okay in his first few sets against Gabriel Diallo though and even when not at his best against the American, he managed to keep things relatively close.

Here he’ll play on a quicker surface which is beneficial to him for a few reasons. First, it should keep the points a bit shorter than clay courts and that means less of a physical toll on his body. Second, not only is he much better on quicker surfaces, but his opponent’s game drops off significantly.

If Nishikori can’t win a best-of-three set tennis match against Navone on grass, I don’t know who he’s going to find wins against in the coming months.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

I’m a big fan of the progress the Argentine has made this season, adding to his forehand and surging up the rankings.

That doesn’t mean he should be given a 40% chance to beat Nishikori on a surface he’s only ever played two matches on. Those matches saw him play four sets and fail to win more than three games in any of them.

I understand that Nishikori’s health issues should impact this pricing a bit, but to have Navone go from somewhere in the 20-25% range (at best) to nearly 40%? I’m not having that.

As much as he’s improved, his game is still far too topspin heavy and I think he’s shown that the low bounce and where he has to take the ball from simply isn’t his jam.

Kei Nishikori vs Mariano Navone H2H – Stat of the Match

With how new to the main tour Navone is and how little Nishikori has played in the last few years, it’s not shocking that these two have yet to run into each other.

We’ll see how Navone fares, but with how well Nishikori has come back after prolonged absences in the last few seasons, I wouldn’t disrespect him as much as the market has with this price.

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