Mariano Navone vs Aleksandar Vukic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 5th

The final preview of the week comes from the ATP 250 Grand Prix Hassan II. It’s a stylistic contrast and battle of two players who thrive on different courts in Mariano Navone vs Aleksandar Vukic. Vukic’s win probability is only 39.5% while Navone is favoured to win at 1.58 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Navone vs Vukic Prediction: Navone to Beat Hard Courter in Marrakech

• Prediction: Navone -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I rarely have days betting on three favorites on clay courts, but this is another case of a favorite that is at least a game too low in terms of where the handicap has been set by the betting markets.

A day after taking out a big-hitting Stan Wawrinka, who is a much better clay courter than Vukic, Navone is less than a three-game favorite against a hard courter who can hit with spin, but not very effectively, and who snuck through the second round of play by thinnest of margins.

Read on for more expert insights.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

After being one of 2023’s Challenger Tour players of the year based on results, Navone is about to get his first real taste of a consistent plain on the main circuit.

We’ve seen him make the final of a Challenger in the Argentinian capital this year and then another at the 500-level tournament in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Now into another quarterfinal, he’s matched up with a player who does have a nice first serve and some power but is not by any means a clay courter. Navone has some of the best rally tolerance you’ll find, and since the summer, we’ve seen him develop his forehand, as he’s able to play much more attacking tennis, pushing opponents well behind the baseline with the weight of shot, adding a much-needed dimension to his game – one that has allowed him to be competitive at more than just the Challenger level.

Aleksandar Vukic Recent Form

After losing seven of his first nine matches of the season on his preferred hard courts, it was an unlikely close match against a certain Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells (though it turns out that Djokovic wasn’t close to being fit that week) that has revived his season.

He went on to reach the semifinals at one of the best Challengers on tour and has now put together more main draw tour-level wins on clay courts this week than he had in the last three years combined.

That brings me to the next point. Despite his wins against an out-of-form Sebastian Ofner (whom he lost more games than he won and needed two close tiebreaks to get through) and Alexandre Muller, Vukic is still far from playing tennis that works on the dirt.

Throw in potential fatigue from a nearly three-hour battle on Thursday night and being the last off the court, and I’m not optimistic he can back it up against a player who knows the surface, is playing the best tennis of his career and can grind out physical matches and wear opponents down with the best of them.

Mariano Navone vs Aleksandar Vukic H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two. It makes sense since Vukic prefers hard courts and Navone clay. Navone has also played primarily at lower levels and mainly in his native South America.

Data-wise, it’s tough to compare the two as well, since this season, they’ve still played primarily on different surfaces, with Navone playing the early clay Challengers and then Golden Swing and Vukic following the more traditional early hard court circuit.

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