Mariano Navone vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/27/25

Our first of two previews from the ATP’s Movistar Chile Open on Thursday comes in the Mariano Navone vs Damir Dzumhur match that leads off the day’s action in the Chilean capital.

Dzumhur’s win probability is only 23%, while Navone is favoured to win at 1.22 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Navone vs Dzumhur prediction is for Navone to win this match in a routine manner.

Mariano Navone vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction: Argentine Far Too Well Rounded for Dzumhur

• Prediction: Navone -4.5 Games & Under 20.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.80 & 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10 & 3/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on February 27th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Well, if this isn’t an ideal spot for someone like Navone ahead of a month of playing on hard courts, I don’t know what is. Yes, the quarterfinal draw could be tough with the potential to play Sebastian Baez – who is up to three trophies lifted since the start of 2024 in this short clay window – but it’s a great chance to pick up quarterfinal points against an underpowered opponent who may struggle to find ways to win points against him and who can often lose the plot mentally.

We saw that in an odd three set match that only needed a total of 25 games against another volatile and emotional player in Corentin Moutet.

Navone at this point has the better attacking game, uses far more topspin to have his groundstrokes kick up out of his opponent’s strike zones, is the better athlete and has the superior backhand.

With how Dzumhur can get frustrated, we’ve also seen that him losing sets in lopsided fashion is not out of the question, especially a player that is more solid, demands longer rallies to beat him and has more talent than he has.

For that reason, I have this total down at 19 or 19.5 games and the handicap closer to -5 or -5.5 games.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

Navone’s 4-2 clay record may seem solid, if not spectacular, so far in February. Let’s look at the actual wins and losses though and it becomes even more impressive.

His victories? Against solid clay court players and then Alexander Shevchenko, and by an average margin of nearly six games. Now, if Dzumhur was a superior player to most that he’s taken on, I’d say that the margin of victory from prior matches should be taken with a grain of salt. That isn’t the case, however.

As for the defeats he’s been handed? Joao Fonseca in a dream week for the sport’s best prospect in which Navone had several match points and appeared to be frustrating the Brazilian to no end with his solidity and defensive capabilities and to the aforementioned Baez, who won Rio de Janeiro both last year and this year and followed up his 2024 Rio title by lifting the trophy at this event as well.

I’m going to credit him with a very strong start to his clay season and considering he’s playing a guy found mainly at the Challenger Tour these days – granted, he’s done well there in the last 52 weeks or so – I’m going to expect a win by a solid margin on Thursday.

Damir Dzumhur Recent Form

As for Dzumhur’s form, after winning so many Challenger tournaments in 2024, he’s earned the ability with his improved ranking to play more tour level events this year.

It hasn’t gone according to plan in the early returns though. He’s only beaten Challenger calibre opponents like Marco Trungelliti, an ageing Dusan Lajovic and a volatile and prone-to-temper-tantrums Corentin Moutet.

Against solid baseliners, he’s found himself in trouble more often than not, even blowing a 6-0 lead to Pedro Martinez a few weeks back. Now playing a similar profile to Martinez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli (we bet on him in that loss that was unfortunately all too routine), but much stronger in attack, his chances are close to nil in my mind.

Mariano Navone vs Damir Dzumhur H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the upstart clay courter and the veteran journeyman. It’s a kind of trading places scenario, as it’s now Navone who has gone from the Challenger Tour to the main circuit, while the opposite has held true for his Bosnian counterpart in the last several years.

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