Mariano Navone vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/18/25

For our next preview, we head to South America and the ATP 500 Rio Open in Brazil. Let’s take on an all-clay courter affair in Mariano Navone vs Roberto Carballes Baena.

Carballes Baena’s win probability is only 41%, while Navone is favoured to win at 1.61 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Jon Reid’s Navone vs Carballes Baena prediction is for Navone to cover the handicap.

Mariano Navone vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction: Navone Too Well Rounded for Fellow Solid Clay Courter

• Prediction: Navone -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.94
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on February 18th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

My first thoughts upon seeing this match and the odds on offer were that in a match between two solid baseliners and guys that don’t miss much, siding with the underdog was the right move. The more I thought about what matters on a tennis court though, the more I realised that one player is simply superior in several aspects and even in others.

That player is actually Navone and he’s a deserved favourite. He’s better at protecting his second serve, he may be the better returner (that’s saying something against an elite clay returner), he certainly has more to his game in attack – especially on the backhand wing – and I’d make the case he’s on the ascent much more than the veteran from Spain.

The narratives like “nerves” over point defence for Navone may be against us, but I much prefer to look at the on-court matchup, and it’s one I like for Navone the more I think about it.

Even in terms of form, Navone had a strong week in Buenos Aires a week ago and was on the verge of sending the eventual-champion and prodigal prospect Joao Fonseca packing before letting it slip through his fingers. Carballes Baena’s hot start has faded in recent times.

I’ll happily give up the three-game head start in this one.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

As competitive as the world No. 46 was on hard courts as he continues to improve in quicker conditions, he was dealt some tough opponents early in tournaments and his results weren’t the best.

As we shift to clay for a few weeks, the results are (unsurprisingly) coming around. He won a few matches in his opening clay event of the year on home soil in Buenos Aires, getting to within a point of reaching the semifinals.

I would normally give him credit for beating Holger Rune, but if we’re being honest, Rune entered that match far from being 100% fit physically, so that win should be taken with a grain of salt (yes, even as Navone backers).

Still, he navigated a draw full of decent clay court players well and though this is another tough task, it’s certainly not one he’s unequipped to handle.

Roberto Carballes Baena Recent Form

As high as I am on Navone in this match and through the year, it must also be said that Carballes Baena has played some decent tennis this year.

After spending years struggling off of clay and committing to a defensively-minded style, he came into 2025 with something to prove and a willingness to play in attack far more often.

That yielded some success as he reached the quarterfinals in New Zealand and then battled his way into the third round of the Australian Open for the first time in his career. The aggression on first serve and when given a favourable spot to hit his forehand from was a big improvement on years past.

That said, as I mentioned above, I don’t love the matchup here. It’s a rare spot where I don’t think he has much of an advantage with regards to consistency and athleticism. I don’t think I like his form nearly as much after an early exit as a large favourite on a slow indoor hard court and then another in Buenos Aires last week.

I don’t think he has the dimensions necessary to his game either to be less of a favourite relative to his opponent on the day.

I won’t be stunned if he were to win, but I think the most relevant factors for this handicap point in the Argentine’s direction.

Mariano Navone vs Roberto Carballes Baena H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone match contested between these two came during this stretch last year at the now-defunct Cordoba Open and that saw Carballes Baena come back from 3-6 down to get the victory in three sets.

I’d make the case that Navone hadn’t just improved a lot from late 2023 to early 2024, but has also made massive strides in his game from February of 2024 to February of 2025. Not quite the same player, and if the Spaniard finds himself down 3-6 again, he may not be able to turn things around this time out.

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