Brandon Nakashima vs Yosuke Watanuki Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/4/24

Our other Rolex Shanghai Masters preview from the ATP 1000 comes in the Brandon Nakashima vs Yosuke Watanuki matchup.

Watanuki’s win probability is down below the 25% mark, while Nakashima is expected to win 80% of the time, coming in at 1.25 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s prediction is for Watanuki to be competitive.

Brandon Nakashima vs Yosuke Watanuki Prediction: Capable Quick Court Specialist Undervalued Against American

• Predictions: Over 22.5 Games & Watanuki +1.5 Sets
• Best Odds: 2.01 & 2.11
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 10:00 pm UK Time on October 3rd, 2024. 

For the second straight day, I’m going to back a player who likes the conditions and possesses the weapons to succeed here but may be undervalued by the market simply because they have been injured and away from the game for the last several months.

Though I don’t think Watanuki is as good as an in-form Nakashima, I will say that his serve and forehand combination, paired with his flatter hitting style were made for this time of year.

The Asian swing and indoor European tournaments should prove to be fruitful for him and though he may not end up pulling off the upset, I do think he’s live to push the American and should be competitive in the early stages at the very least.

Brandon Nakashima Recent Form

At a career-high ranking of 36 in the world, Nakashima is having a massive season. After tearing up the Challenger Tour to start the year, Nakashima has been looking to have more success on the main circuit. He’s had some trouble with the upper-echelon players in the men’s game, and he’s only made three runs to the quarterfinals or better at this level, but it is nice to see him back among the world’s top 50.

On quicker courts, he can have trouble at times with his game he has enough power but can certainly be overwhelmed by those whose game is based on aggression and big hitting.

We saw that during grass season where he racked up victories but also lost to the likes of Jack Draper, Ugo Humbert, and even Leandro Riedi (the name I think Watanuki would be best to try to emulate in this match).

Powerful, flat hitting tends to take time away from the 23-year-old and push him behind the baseline. That essentially means the match shifts to his opponent’s racquet and when they’re hitting their spots, it’s tough for him to find a path to victory.

Yosuke Watanuki Recent Form

The Japanese possesses that exact style, but it must be said, he’s played very little this season and can also be quite error-prone. There is a reason the odds are over 4.00 after all.

That said, the weapons are there, the comfort regarding the conditions should be there and a stylistic matchup could provide him with a way through.

I’d be happy with a three-setter or any kind as a result and think he has more than enough in his locker to challenge Nakashima and push him to the brink.

Brandon Nakashima vs Yosuke Watanuki H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two.

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