Brandon Nakashima vs Yoshihito Nishioka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/3/25

Second previous comes from the ATP’s Dallas Open as we look at Brandon Nakashima vs Yoshihito Nishioka in first round action. Worth noting this may be a Tuesday match, as the schedule has not come out yet at the time of writing.

Nishioka’s win probability is 43.5%, while Nakashima is favoured to win at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Nakashima vs Nishioka prediction is for Nakashima to win.

Brandon Nakashima vs Yoshihito Nishioka Prediction: Nakashima Should be Able to Handle Tricky Lefty

• Prediction: Nakashima to win
• Best Odds: 1.62
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 10:30 pm UK Time on February 2nd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Tough to talk much about conditions in this tournament, seeing as Dallas is being played at a new venue this season. When it was held on the campus of Southern Methodist University (or SMU), conditions were really quick. They’re moving to a facility owned by the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys this year though, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Regardless, the primary factors in this handicap remain the same. Nakashima isn’t the greatest returner, so we’re getting a fairly manageable handicap and Nishioka doesn’t have the most potent service game and is coming off a really tough travel spot, as he played for Japan in a Davis Cup tie at home (Nakashima was not involved in the United States’ tie in Taiwan ).

I’d play the handicap here as well, but at the time of writing, it hasn’t yet popped up. 1.62 is plenty of value though for him just to win.

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Brandon Nakashima Recent Form

It’s been a tough start to the year for the 23-year-old world No. 41. It actually feels a lot like the 2023 season, where Nakashima lost a lot of matches, but the vast majority of them were close affairs, even against strong opposition.

This year he is 1-3, with losses to Lorenzo Sonego (one break of serve margin and a lost tiebreak), Rinky Hijikata (in a third set tiebreak) and Ben Shelton (6-7, 5-7, 5-7).

This matchup may be a bit more forgiving though. He plays someone in a tough travel spot that simply doesn’t have the firepower to hold with ease and take advantage of Nakashima’s subpar service game.

If I was the American, this would be both an opportunity when looking at the matchup, but a big concern if he comes away without the victory.

Yoshihito Nishioka Recent Form

The Japanese lefty had his fair share of close losses as well to start the year (three sets against Jiri Lehecka and Thanasi Kokkinakis), but hasn’t been all that good since qualifying for Brisbane, making the second rond and pushing the eventual champion to a deciding set.

He did win a pair of matches over the weekend in Miki, Japan against Billy Harris and Jacob Fearnley (credit for the latter is due), but being so far away does make me wonder how ready he will be for this one.

He’ll have to spot serve well, target the Nakashima backhand and hope for mistakes from the baseline against his opponent in this one.

Brandon Nakashima vs Yoshihito Nishioka H2H – Stat of the Match

The series is tied 1-1 without much relevant information to take away. Nishioka won the hard court meeting on medium-slow hard courts in three sets, but that was five years ago now and the most recent matchup (won by Nakashima) came on clay courts last season.

Nakashima’s hold plus break percentage in the last 52 weeks on hard courts on the main tour checks in at about 102, while Nishioka comes in around 98.5 in that same metric.

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