Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/10/25

Our second preview to begin the second week of the ATP BNP Paribas Open comes from the Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi match.

Arnaldi’s win probability is only 49%, while Nakashima is favoured to win at 1.84 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Nakashima vs Arnaldi prediction is for Arnaldi to win.

Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction: Wrong Man Favoured in Slow Conditions

• Prediction: Arnaldi to win
• Best Odds: 2.04
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:45 am UK Time on March 10th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m not going to take an impassioned case for Arnaldi to be a big favourite in this match, but I will make the case that the prices here should be flipped, with Arnaldi the favourite.

He’s the better slower court player, he’s just as good, if not better in terms of being well rounded than Nakashima and I don’t think there’s anything in his 2025 form to downgrade him enough to make him the underdog.

He’s the better returner, shouldn’t be rushed in slow conditions against Nakashima and that makes me more than happy to risk a little more than usual in backing him.

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Brandon Nakashima Recent Form

Though the 23-year-old has played some decent tennis and compiled a nice record during this stretch of slower hard court tournaments (Delray Beach, Acapulco and now Indian Wells), I’m not all that impressed.

Two serve-oriented players in Delray Beach (with one win from a set down), a retirement three games into a match in Acapulco and two middling players without much firepower, followed by a quick court player that is a fringe tour level guy in the opening round here.

He does back up his serve really well, but he also lacks in the return department, despite not really being a typical serve-oriented kind of player in terms of skill set.

I think he’s a solid top-50 player, but I also think his ceiling is fairly low. He will keep a lot of matches close against better player, but I’m not sure that his ceiling is high enough to ever break through to the top of the game.

Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form

It’s been a strong start to Indian Wells for Arnaldi. After struggling to get over the line against Aleksandar Kovacevic in the opening round despite having plenty of leads, then came back from a break down in the opening set and a double break down in the second set to pull off the upset against Andrey Rublev.

The concerns for the 35th-ranked player in the world are almost entirely down to his tendency to miss far too many balls.

He may not have blistering power on his shots, but he’s got the ability to generate pace and dictate play, he’s a great shotmaker, he can hit on the run nicely and his defensive capabilities are solid.

If he can find a way to reduce his error rate in an average match by 5-10% I think we’re really going to see him push up even further in the rankings.

His losses this year aren’t all that bad with a series of top-20 players, an in form Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and a huge-serving Reilly Opelka.

With Nakashima not the best returner and preferring quicker courts, I think Arnaldi should be the slight favourite rather than the slight underdog.

Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi H2H – Stat of the Match

In my book, the head-to-head record here is 1-0 to the Italian. Yes, the official record for the ATP Tour says 1-1, but the Nakashima victory was back in 2022 at the NextGen Finals. That event is played on a singles-only court, plays a deciding point at deuce and plays to four games a set with a tiebreak at 3-3. That’s without mentioning they play best-of-five sets.

It’s a totally different format and it was well over two years ago now anyway. For me, this is advantage Arnaldi, after he beat Nakashima in medium-slow conditions back in Delray Beach a few weeks ago.

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