Naef vs Burel Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/3/24

Our second preview for Tuesday’s action also comes from the WTA’s Open Angers Arena Loire. It’s Celine Naef vs Clara Burel.

Burel’s win probability is slightly under 50%, while Naef is favoured to win at 1.72 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Naef vs Burel is for Burel to win.

Celine Naef vs Clara Burel Prediction: Defending Champion in Great Position to Get Back on Track

• Prediction: Burel to win
• Best Odds: 2.16
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on December 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Form is the name of the game as to why we’re seeing this one priced the way it is. Make no mistake, form is crucial and in an individual sport, confidence (or a lack thereof) can be even more impactful.

With that said, I don’t think it’s the only relevant factor when looking to come up with a price on a tennis match. There’s no denying the win-loss records in recent months greatly favour Naef. Context is key, however, and we’ll go over that below.

For me, Burel is back in a field where she’s one of the better players and at a tournament where she’s the defending champion. That means we know she can play here, and that we know there’s plenty of motivation with points to defend.

The other reason I don’t mind Burel is that on a quicker hard court, she won’t look nearly as underpowered, yet also is still far from a bigger hitter, which is the kind of WTA Tour player that Naef has been able to play well against in the past as a counterpuncher. Without much of a talent edge, I’m not sure where her success comes from in this matchup on a hard court.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Celine Naef Recent Form

The primary reason so many have been eager to back the Swiss since the first round prices in Angers were released is because of Naef’s scintillating form.

Since moving indoors in October, Naef has gone: semifinal, quarterfinal, semifinal, semifinal and title.

That is a lot of success, and consistent success.

My only issue is that the matchup may not be exactly what she’s looking for and in those 16 victories she’s picked up in five events, I count just two that came against players in the same sphere as her opponent on Tuesday (those being Oceane Dodin and Dara Saville).

I do think that the opposite trajectories are worth factoring in, but not to the point that we make the player who has still proven less this season the clear favourite.

Clara Burel Recent Form

Along with Naef’s recent wins, Burel’s lack of success is another major reason the market has firmly come against her in this matchup. I’m not so down on her and as I said, I think it’s led to a bit too much disrespect.

Let’s examine her rough patch in the last few months. For starters, her struggles have almost all come on the WTA Tour, and not down on the ITF circuit. That means that almost all of her struggles, at the very least, are coming against legitimately tough opposition.

Dating back to the Olympics, Burel has nine losses on tour. Five of those have come against top-35 opposition, all of whom have the ability to hit through her in some way. A sixth was against a red-hot Rebecca Sramkova, who is now also inside the top-50 and has a big game herself.

Now, the recent losses to Nao Hibino and Cristina Bucsa do concern me. We’re not getting these kinds of odds on a defending champion for no reason.

It’s not enough, however, for me to pass on her against a counterpuncher who has struggled to play tour-level tennis in recent years.

Celine Naef vs Clara Burel H2H – Stat of the Match

Another factor that probably influenced punters to back the Swiss in this one is the fact that these two met back in the summer with Naef beating Burel (also on French soil) 6-3, 6-3. Now, that was a clay court 125k, and the change in surface means it’s not all that important.

It’s also a one-match sample size, which I’m weary of.

Finally, that match went off with Burel as the favourite. I’m not sure I’d have this flipped when moving indoors at an event Burel has won and desperately needs results at this time around once more.

Safer Gambling

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