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Horse Racing Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, April 17th
After a nice win in his return to action, what better match to preview than Rafael Nadal vs de Minaur? This match from the Barcelona Open where the ATP’s 500-level tournament has the main court named after the country’s all-time great. Nadal’s win probability is 52.4% while de Minaur is also at 1.91 odds. The handicap is 0.0 games and the total games line is 22. Our Nadal vs de Minaur prediction is available below!
Nadal vs de Minaur Prediction: Nadal Still Undervalued at a Tournament He Dominated
Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on April 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Yet he still cruised in his return to action, plays with incredible amounts of topspin, and at even money, I simply don’t see how one can pass betting on him. If I lose money taking the greatest clay courter of all time at 2.00 odds, so be it. My Nadal vs de Minaur prediction is for Nadal to win.
More previews for Wednesday’s tennis can be found on the expert insights page.
Alex de Minaur Recent Form
Not known for his clay court prowess, de Minaur began his season on the red dirt in impressive fashion a week ago in Monte Carlo. He managed to reach the quarterfinals before bowing out against Novak Djokovic in a match the world No. 1 described as being pretty low quality from both.
Outlasting Stan Wawrinka these days seems to be the norm. Alexei Popyrin is an up-and-down kind of player and Tallon Griekspoor is another player that can be very streaky. Those were the wins that got him to an out-of-sorts Djokovic. This is why I’m not exactly putting a ton of stock in that quarterfinal appearance.
Last year wasn’t the most impressive from the Aussie on the clay either, and I’m wondering what exactly makes him as or more likely to win this match than Nadal. The rally tolerance and ball retrieval are elite, but Nadal isn’t all that error-prone. He’s a strong returner and could pressure Rafa’s service games. But, the reverse is also very likely, and his style is not as conducive to success on the surface.
Rafael Nadal Recent Form
He hasn’t played much this year, but as I mentioned in Tuesday’s preview of his match, do we need to question his fitness? He made it clear he wasn’t going to rush back, and dropped out of several events to ensure he was ready. And, this time around, we have a match to dissect to add at least a little more information to our handicap.
As expected, Nadal taught Flavio Cobolli a lesson in clay court tennis, and more importantly, he didn’t seem to have any physical issues. He didn’t require a medical timeout and he wasn’t clutching or stretching anything during his time on court.
As for his slightly lower service speeds, he did make mention after the match in the press about him choosing his spots on serve and not trying to push it too hard on every point.
I saw nothing that concerned me in his opening match on the court named after him. And, with Barcelona being perfect conditions-wise, there is no way I’m passing on this price.
Just ask yourself, how many more times do you ever think you’ll get the chance to bet on Nadal again as a short favorite against a mediocre clay courter? How much would he have to fall off to make these odds make sense?
With the bet placed at Bet365, we once again have some protection should there be an injury flare-up and retirement. They will void any bets on “to win” markets should your player retire. As I mentioned, I don’t expect that to happen, but it’s an added bit of peace of mind just in case.
Alex de Minaur vs Rafael Nadal H2H – Stat of the Match
Nadal won the first three meetings between these two, with de Minaur winning the only match they’ve played in the last three years.
That was on home soil and on a quick hard court, however, in conditions that certainly favored de Minaur far more. This is the first time the two will play on clay and that is an advantage for Nadal.
Safer Gambling
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