Rafael Nadal vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction, Free Picks, H2H, 4/16/24

Our final preview for Tuesday comes from the most anticipated match on the slate and comes from the ATP 500 Barcelona Open. The legend returns to the clay courts, as it’s our Nadal vs Cobolli prediction. Cobolli’s win probability is only 22.9% while Nadal is favored to win at 1.25 odds. The handicap is 5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Nadal vs Cobolli Prediction: Clay Court Legend to Return with a Bang

• Prediction: Nadal -5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of 2:00 am UK Time on April 16th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This draw isn’t the worst for the 12-time Barcelona champion as he looks to get some tennis into his legs before the French Open in just over a month.

We know that he isn’t likely to play unless he’s feeling as though he’s ready to compete, which he made clear when he withdrew from Indian Wells and Monte Carlo. I need not go into the reasons why I believe in Nadal on the dirt, but the matchup is squarely in his favor.

For starters, there’s the fact that if you want to push Nadal on the clay, then you need to either play out of your mind or be one of the other elite clay courters. Cobolli certainly doesn’t fit the latter just yet.

As far as the handicap goes, giving up a five-game head start may seem daunting in the men’s game, but we’re on slow clay and have one of the greatest returners of all time on a surface he consistently beats lesser players by wide margins.

Finally, Cobolli can be error-prone at times, and against a player of Rafa’s stature and the heavy topspin, that is only likely to be a weakness that is amplified on Tuesday. Our Nadal vs Cobolli prediction is for Nadal to cover the five-game handicap.

Rafael Nadal Recent Form

Not much form to speak of for Nadal. He looked fine in his return to Australia with two strong wins before Jordan Thompson pulled off an unlikely upset. From there, it was back to the sidelines with an injury for one of the greatest to ever play the sport.

He did play the Netflix Slam exhibition against Carlos Alcaraz and pushed him to the brink, but we can’t put much stock in exhibition matches and that seemed only to re-aggravate his physical issues.

Those physical issues are probably the only reason that we’re seeing this handicap at a cheap -5 rather than -5.5 or -6. The upside to backing the -5? Pinnacle voids all retirements on handicaps, regardless of the scoreline at the time of the retirement. That is nice insurance to have just in case he does feel something and elects not to finish out a match that he may otherwise struggle to finish and lose.

Flavio Cobolli Recent Form

Cobolli has had his best-ever start to a season, currently sitting at a career-high in the rankings of 62. He does possess some firepower and certainly has a bright future ahead, but the talent is still raw, and we’ve seen in the opening weeks of the clay season where his weaknesses still lie.

Building points and avoiding unforced errors are still two things the young Italian still needs to work on. He lost pretty badly to the likes of Pavel Kotov and Sumit Nagal with his lone win on the dirt coming against a hard courter in Abdullah Shelbayh.

Further, if we’re going to back a big handicap like this, we want to make sure the chances for a lopsided set are there. Not only is Nadal more than capable of putting up 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2 sets himself, but three of the four sets Cobolli has lost this clay season? 6-1, 6-2 and 6-3.

Rafael Nadal vs Flavio Cobolli H2H – Stat of the Match

These two haven’t met before. No surprise there with Cobolli just making himself a tour-level regular this year and Nadal having been out for all but one week of the season.

I don’t think we need to go over the clay court statistics for each of them. Nadal is the most dominant player on the surface the game has ever seen.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.