Lorenzo Musetti vs Jan Lennard Struff Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/29/24

We’re back for some more previews from the ATP’s Rolex Paris Masters. First up, let’s break down Lorenzo Musetti vs Jan Lennard Struff.

Struff’s win probability is about 40%, while Musetti is favored to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Musetti vs Struff prediction is for Musetti to cover the handicap.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Jan Lennard Struff Prediction

• Prediction: Musetti -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.92
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds updated at 6:45 pm UK Time on October 28th, 2024. 

I’m actually surprised we’re still seeing the market undervalue Musetti to this extent. With Musetti having improved his serve in quicker conditions (Bercy, hosting the tournament for the final time, has played in recent years between Basel and Vienna in terms of court speed) and Struff having faded away against a rusty Alex de Minaur a week ago, I think he should be at least a three to 3.5 game favorite.

We saw Musetti re-find his form last week as we expected him to in Vienna and this is a strong matchup for him to open his account in the French capital as well.

He’s more fit at the moment, far more talented, and can make things physical, which as we saw last week, isn’t Struff’s preferred kind of match at the best of times, let alone at the moment and he’s now got the serve to stick with Struff through his purple patches and can find the passing shots to punish Struff when he comes to the net.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

After a disappointing set of tournaments in Beijing and Shanghai (though he did reach the final in Chengdu), Musetti had a strong week in Vienna, losing to eventual champion Jack Draper in the semifinals.

He’s spoken about how much he feels he’s improved on serve and though I didn’t believe it when we first saw it on grass, I think it’s tough to deny at this point.

He’s had a career-best season in 2024, especially on hard courts and grass courts and he’s the much more physical of the two players.

From form to matchup, Musetti is clear of the current iteration of Struff.

Jan Lennard Struff Recent Form

Struff hasn’t won a match since July when he beat a doubles specialist at the Olympics prior to withdrawing prior to his match against Corentin Moutet.

From there, he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in very quick conditions in Cincinnati and to clay courter Laslo Djere in New York at the year’s final major (he was priced as a 1.20-1.25 favorite in that one).

From there he took time off, before coming back and playing a fellow rusty player in de Minaur, who he won just four games against in the final two sets after rolling through the opener.

Whether it’s the concern that he’s not 100% back up to speed since his time off or the fact that he simply hasn’t won because of his play, there is cause for concern here.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Jan Lennard Struff H2H – Stat of the Match

Musetti won the lone meeting between these two. It took place indoors back in 2022, where he won a close first set and ran away with the second in Sofia, Bulgaria.

The most interesting part of that win is that it took place in quick conditions long before Musetti had improved as much as he has on quicker courts. I’m not saying that we’re going to see the same result here, but I do think that all things considered, things are even more favorable for Musetti now than they were in 2022.

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