Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/22/24

Our other preview from Tuesday’s action also comes from the ATP’s Erste Bank Open in Vienna. It’s Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego in an all-Italian matchup.

Sonego’s win probability is down below 40%, while Musetti is favoured to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Musetti vs Sonego prediction is for Musetti to pick up the win.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction: Musetti Should Win Straightforward Match Against Countryman

• Prediction: Musetti -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on October 22nd, 2024. 

The first can be explained by his competition. David Goffin has turned back the years, Bu Yunchaokete has nice weapons and was on a tear and the loss to Juncheng Shang was in a final, so he can’t be upset with his performance in Chengdu.

The second concern can be explained away with the fact that he played the UTS event in Frankfurt over the weekend. Now, it’s an exhibition and I’m not going to use the results in a handicap. However, if the concern was lack of indoor play, it helps in that regard.

Give me Musetti to keep Sonego’s cold streak going and if Sonego wins two matches in two months with me being on the other side of both of them, so be it.

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Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Though I think he’ll be disappointed at blowing the lead against Goffin last time out in Shanghai, I don’t think any of his recent losses are that bad.

He’s really taken a step forward this season in rounding out his game and becoming much more of a threat on quicker surfaces. I have him at least 3.5 games better than Sonego, even on a quicker hard court where his compatriot’s serve may be able to keep him close.

Where the market has forced us to take a position on whether it’s more likely he wins by three or more games, I’d make people make the decision on four or more.

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

I’m not sure why Sonego continues to get credit in the betting markets. I’ve opposed him in articles of late and even though he got me when I backed Marc Andrea Huesler, he barely won that match in two tight sets and then lost to an abysmal Casper Ruud who has never been at his best on hard courts, but is in a real bad way at the moment.

Denis Shapovalov, Adrian Mannarino and Taro Daniel also got him on hard courts and they’ve all been pretty poor in 2024.

There is no reason that this handicap should only be the equivalent of a one break of serve margin.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego H2H – Stat of the Match

The two Lorenzos have never battled it out on the court on the professional circuit.

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