Lorenzo Musetti vs Christopher O’Connell Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 20/9/24

Our first preview to wrap up the week comes from the ATP 250 Chengdu Open. Let’s take a closer look at Lorenzo Musetti vs Christopher O’Connell.

O’Connell’s win probability is about 38%, while Musetti is favored to win at 1.54 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Musetti vs O’Connell prediction is for Musetti to cover the handicap.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Christopher O’Connell Prediction: Trust Favourite in Chengdu

• Prediction: Musetti -2.5 Games & Musetti -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83 & 2.01
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 3/10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on September 20th, 2024. 

I’m not usually one for favourites during this time of year when motivation concerns arise and the courts are quicker, which normally means closer matches and more competitive underdogs, but this match is an exception.

Musetti has looked increasingly comfortable on quicker surfaces in recent times, and his serve and attacking game have improved over the course of the 2024 season. Throw in the variety and consistency that come from his more natural clay-oriented game, and you’ve got a pretty well-rounded player.

O’Connell is in form himself right now, so it’s not all that surprising to see the market backing him here, but his primary strengths are his first serve and his backhand slice. The former is something that he’s struggled to land at a high rate this season and something that Musetti can neutralize with his proficiency on return. The latter is something Musetti is also comfortable playing and with his one-hander on that wing, he’ll surely be happy to have more time to play those shots on these faster courts.

I’ll take the much more talented player with strong form at a higher level and just about every matchup advantage you could ask for. Let’s hope this higher-stakes bet doesn’t choke it away down the stretch as Orlando Luz did on Thursday.

More tennis previews are now posted over on the expert insights page.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Not only does Musetti match up well with O’Connell in my books, but he’s in absolutely sensational form entering this one as well.

Not only is he 25-8 since the start of the French Open, but his losses have all been to very high-level players. There isn’t a single loss I’d categorize as a bad one. Novak Djokovic, Tommy Paul, a red-hot Frances Tiafoe on quick courts, an in-form Brandon Nakashima, Matteo Berrettini on grass, and Francisco Cerundolo on clay. All tough matches. O’Connell doesn’t come close to the level of any of them.

The form is strong, the game is improving and he’s well clear of his opponent on the day. Musetti has to be here because he sees a chance to continue picking up wins on what shouldn’t be a favorable surface for him. If he loses this one, I’d be very surprised.

Christopher O’Connell Recent Form

The Aussie is in pretty decent form himself. After a horrible start to the campaign and some physical issues earlier in the summer, he’s started to produce again on the quicker hard courts.

After making the third round of the U.S. Open with a pair of wins as the underdog, he enters Chengdu off a title at the Guangzhou Challenger. Now, it should be said, that none of the players he beat remotely compare with Musetti and he did need a pair of comebacks in Guangzhou to lift the trophy, including from 1-6 down in the final.

I’m not convinced enough by his play to believe he should be nearing 40% in the markets to win this one, especially against the best player he’s played in quite some time and a player who isn’t fazed by anything he does well.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Christopher O’Connell H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between these two.

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