Lorenzo Musetti vs Arthur Fils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 9th

The third preview for Tuesday’s action from the ATP’s Rolex Monte Carlo Masters features two bright young stars of the men’s game. It’s Lorenzo Musetti vs Arthur Fils. Fils’ win probability stands at 39.4% while Musetti is favored to win at 1.58 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Musetti vs Fils Prediction: Slow Courts Favour Italian in Round 1

• Predictions: Musetti -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of 1:15 am UK Time on April 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I don’t think it’s a hot take to say these are two excellent young players, but tennis is a sport all about matchups, and in this particular match, it’s advantage to Musetti in a big way for me.

Not only has his recent form been more inspiring for me, but the conditions and courts are perfect for him. This is, after all, the place he upset Novak Djokovic this time last year.

Pair that with the struggles of Fils of late – whether a bit of expected regression or simply growing pains in his first full year on the main tour – and I do think Musetti should be a bit bigger of a favorite. Our Musetti vs Fils prediction is for Musetti to cover the 2.5-game handicap.

Read on for more expert insights.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Musetti’s recent play may not be all that inspiring on paper, but having watched several of his matches in recent weeks, I think that his form is building, and with the tennis season shifting to his favorite surface with court speeds that suit his style more, we could see some strong results in the coming weeks.

In Miami, where conditions could have easily still been tough on him, he beat a pair of big-serving, powerful-hitting lefties Denis Shapovalov and Ben Shelton. It wasn’t just that he beat them, it was that he produced a strong level in each and needed to play well to get through those matches. His loss that week? To Carlos Alcaraz – certainly not a loss one can hold against the Italian.

Last week in Estoril I’m sure he’ll be disappointed with his exit to Nuno Borges, but having watched that match, I’m not sure I can classify it as a bad loss for him. Borges played off the emotion of the home crowd and produced one of the best matches I’ve ever seen him play. Musetti once again played a decent level in that one.

Now he gets a powerful, but somewhat out-of-form and error-prone youngster in Fils. With Monte Carlo being one of the slowest courts on tour, it’ll be tough to produce a lot of winners against Musetti. He’s also well-positioned with his ability to make a lot of balls and work the entire court to induce errors from Fils. It’s a style that has worked well in recent times against the 19-year-old as well.

Arthur Fils Recent Form

Good on Fils for his resounding victory in the opening round of play against lucky loser Yannick Hanfmann. He lost just two games as he dispatched the big German.

Now, Hanfmann probably wasn’t expecting to play on Monday and was coming off a long, physical, and high-quality qualifying match on Sunday against Jaume Munar, so it has to be considered that he may not have had a lot left in the tank.

Other than that, it hasn’t been the smoothest sailing this season. He needed two close sets to beat Joao Sousa in what was the last match of the Portuguese’s career and other than a pair of wins in Indian Wells, that was his only win since the Australian swing.

The errors have come far too often from the baseline from his racquet and that’s not a problem you want to have A) in slow conditions on clay courts and B) against someone that plays the way Musetti plays.

Further, as I alluded to above, the players who have beaten Fils lately are solid baseliners who move the ball around the court well and can coax errors from opponents. Cristian Garin and Pedro Martinez both fit that description, while Casper Ruud and Matteo Arnaldi can play that way while adding more firepower to the equation as well.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Arthur Fils H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two. I’m sure we’ll see this match play out many times over in the future though.

Hard not to like the more experienced player who is more natural on the dirt. Other than the dream title run the week before the French Open last year for Fils, there’s not a whole heck of a lot to love about his style or resume on the surface.

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