Lorenzo Musetti vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, April 17th

The next preview also focuses on the ATP’s Barcelona Open. Let’s look at one of last year’s semifinalists in Musetti vs Carballes Baena. Carballes Baena’s win probability is only 32.6% while Musetti is favored to win at 1.41 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5. Our Musetti vs Carballes Baena prediction is available below!

To find more previews and tips from the tennis on Wednesday, check out the Expert Insights page.

Musetti vs Carballes Baena Prediction: Musetti Matches Up Perfectly Against Fellow Clay Courter

• Prediction: Musetti -3.5 Games & -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83 & 2.05
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 4/10

Odds as of 1:00 am UK Time on April 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The main part of the clay court swing was where Musetti managed to shine in 2023. And, it took some of the best players in the world to dispatch him in tournaments played in slower conditions. Other than the strong-serving Yannick Hanfmann in the altitude of Madrid, Musetti’s losses from Monte Carlo to the French Open came to Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas twice, and Carlos Alcaraz. In other words, elite players.

His hitting style suits clay perfectly, his consistency does as well and the point construction is top-notch.

Carballes Baena can match the consistency, but that’s about it. There’s no surface edge for the defensive-minded Spaniard, nor is he better offensively and I make this handicap five games.

Carballes Baena should struggle to keep Musetti from pressuring his serve. And, while I expect the strong returner to pressure Musetti himself, it’s far more likely Musetti finds cleaner holds of serve. This one should be won in straight sets, but even if it isn’t, lopsided sets are more likely to go Musetti’s way in my books as well.

All that tells me a -3.5 or -4 game handicap is too generous a number to pass up on the Italian. So I’ll go ahead and create a makeshift -3.75 games by playing both of those numbers.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

This is the part of the calendar where Musetti came to life in 2023, and he appears to be finding form once again this season.

Last week in Monte Carlo saw him win a pair of matches in impressive fashion. Firstly, against Arthur Fils and Taylor Fritz, before pushing Novak Djokovic in the opening set before the legendary world No. 1 found his footing. It was another big event that saw Musetti’s run stopped only by one of the world’s elite though. I can’t hold that against him in a matchup against someone as middling as Carballes Baena.

Not only can Musetti match his opponent’s strengths, but he has the rare advantage from an offensive standpoint. He can hit through the forehand with more pace than the Spaniard and generate better angles to hit through on the court more effectively as well.

I’ll take the undervalued world No. 24 at a site where he had success last season and in conditions that position him well for success.

Roberto Carballes Baena Recent Form

A clay court specialist by nature, Carballes Baena has already managed to play 11 matches this season on the surface. The thing is, he’s got six wins, with two-thirds of them coming in Marrakech. This is where he won the title last year and backed it up with a final run this season.

Other than that, he struggled to find wins during February’s Golden Swing in South America. Despite not being tasked with anyone as tough as Musetti and his win in the opening round coming against a player entering the draw as a lucky loser .

Nothing inspiring in his form this year, and his game is equally as uninspiring. If he wasn’t a clay specialist due to being from a place that plays almost entirely on the surface growing up, he would be by necessity. This is because he possesses very little power, does not dictate play that much, and is reliant on extending rallies. He likes waiting for errors and making matches as physical as he can.

Perhaps he can do those things against Musetti, but the Italian doesn’t profile as one to succumb to unforced errors or physical matches.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Roberto Carballes Baena H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first professional meeting between the two. Musetti’s blended clay elo rating is well over 100 points higher and his raw clay elo is over 160 points better. Also, his hold plus break percentage in the last year on clay at the main tour level is an impressive 110% compared to Carballes Baena’s 98.6%.

Whether it be the matchup, form, overall talent level, or statistical side of things, Musetti has an edge and the markets make him an average two-break favorite. It’s not easy to cover larger handicaps on the ATP circuit. But, in slower conditions and against a pretty weak server, this match certainly sets up to be a one-sided affair I’ll look to profit from.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.