Jaume Munar vs Hugo Gaston Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/2/24

We’re onto the penultimate Masters 1000 of the season on the ATP calendar as the Shanghai Open gets underway. It’s another two-week affair, with qualifying having taken place Monday and Tuesday. Let’s look at Jaume Munar vs Hugo Gaston in one of the less heralded matches on the schedule, but one that provides some betting value.

Gaston’s win probability is only 37.5%, while Munar is favoured to win at 1.52 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Munar vs Gaston prediction is for Munar to cover the handicap.

Jaume Munar vs Hugo Gaston Prediction: Munar Matched Up with Perfect Opponent in Quick Conditions

• Prediction: Munar -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 4:00 am UK Time on October 2nd, 2024. 

The qualifiers have been placed and, more importantly, we have odds for almost every one of the 32 matches for the first round from Shanghai. Some of the first round took place overnight, but I want to begin our Shanghai previews with a first round encounter that sees me backing Munar in a tilt between two relatively underpowered players.

If we go over a checklist of factors to consider when looking to place a bet, this one checks nearly all of them. Form? Advantage Munar. Same goes for game compatibility on quick courts. The matchup advantage? Also in the Spaniard’s favour. Heck, they’ve even played a relevant match of late that went his way.

He has the bigger serve, he’s consistently undervalued in quicker conditions and he’s well equipped to deal with the Gaston junk balling and variety with his speed and court coverage. He is also just as consistent and likely the better returner.

Though the conditions here are quicker and laying more than three games can be risky, this is a quality returner taking on a lighter server, so I’m not sure why this wouldn’t be a -4 or even a -4.5 game handicap.

More tennis previews are available on the expert insights page.

Jaume Munar Recent Form

I don’t want to make it seem like Munar is elite on hard courts or in quicker conditions. He certainly isn’t. That said, he is undervalued relative to the market’s perception (more relevant when looking to find smart bets) and better than his opponent on the day in these conditions. That’s the reason I pumped up his tires.

He’s in strong form, whether we look at his most recent matches or his most recent hard court form.

Sure, his Cincinnati-Winston Salem-U.S. Open stretch only produced a 2-3 record, but he beat a Lorenzo Sonego who has a much more imposing game than he does in quick conditions and his losses came in three sets to a red-hot David Goffin (a more natural hard courter) and Jack Draper (a third set tiebreak no less, against a rising star and dare I say, elite hard courter), while he lost in four sets to another big serving and big hitting youngster on the rise in Gabriel Diallo. That last one was in four sets and he was ever-so-close to pushing that to a deciding fifth set.

I have no issues with how he played this summer on the hard courts, and there is no doubt that he’ll be seeing this as a chance to pick up Masters 1000 prize money with a win he wouldn’t otherwise be able to pick up on this surface.

The serve is underrated, the baseline game is as solid as a rock and his composure blows that of the Frenchman out of the water as well.

As for his most recent form? He took down a Challenger in slightly elevated conditions on clay in Austria in his last tournament. For those who believe momentum is important, that’s another feather in his cap.

Hugo Gaston Recent Form

Not much to like in Gaston’s recent play. He’s lost six straight matches dating back to the Kitzbuhel final, and in the five matches that took place on hard courts, only once did he manage to win at least three games in each set played.

That is indicative of both his poor attitude on court and the fact that he’s underpowered and susceptible to coughing up lopsided set scores (always relevant when betting a favourite on the handicap).

He doesn’t have anything in his game that should really trouble Munar and he’s also someone who prefers slower courts.

I’m happy to oppose him here. If he manages to land precise, low-margin first serves in the back corners of the service box to defeat this wager, then I tip my cap. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Jaume Munar vs Hugo Gaston H2H – Stat of the Match

The only two meetings between these two have come on hard courts. The first was way back in 2020 at the Australian Open where Munar won 3-1 and by a nine game margin. The other was a few months back in Cincinnati, where it was a five game margin of victory in straight sets for the 27-year-old.

I don’t put too much weight into head-to-head records, but if the previous meetings came in similar conditions, I do think there may be a bit of relevance. Luckily, in this case, it appears to be on our side.

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