Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Zhizhen Zhang Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/24/25

Our second preview of the day comes from the ATP’s Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. Let’s look at Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Zhizhen Zhang.

Zhang’s win probability is almost 50%, while Mpetshi Perricard is favoured to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 25.5.

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Jon Reid’s Mpetshi Perricard vs Zhang prediction is for Mpetshi Perricard to win.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Zhizhen Zhang Prediction: Big Serving Frenchman to Prove Too Much for Zhang

• Prediction: Mpetshi Perricard to win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:45 am UK Time on February 24th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m not going to make this overly complicated. I’m one of the last people out there that finds value in betting favourites in matches that involve a servebot and feel like toss ups more often than not.

This is the rare exception though, with the more likely player to break serve here being Mpetshi Perricard. Make no mistake, I’m not going to try and gaslight you into believing that he’s anything more than a bad returner. It’s more about Zhang and his volatile, all-or-nothing style of play that makes me want to oppose him. He can throw a service game or two away with really poor misses and questionable decision making.

With it a near-certainty that should he do that he won’t be recovering the break and thus the set is likely lost, I do have Mpetshi Perricard rated much more highly than I normally do and I actually think backing him at the price is fine.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Recent Form

After a breakout campaign in 2024 that culminated with an ATP 500 title in Basel last fall, the tennis world began speculating what the ceiling is for the latest servebot to reach the main tour.

Some tried to make the case that he’s not like the serve-centric tall players of old (they couldn’t be more wrong) and that his touch and feel were superior to the likes of John Isner or Ivo Karlovic. Others even made the case that the big man has a nice one-handed backhand. They, too, are incorrect. It can be flashy at times, but it will limit him once he starts playing better players more regularly.

Ultimately, he is what he is. A player that is going to be near impossible to break, but one that shouldn’t trouble his opponent’s service games either.

That’s going to mean a lot of tiebreaks, a lot of boring tennis and a lot of close matches. I do think he may get some help from his opponent in this one, but on the whole, I’m not as big on his prospects as many in the tennis community.

The form this year has seen him make the semifinals in Brisbane, before being sent packing by an ageing Gael Monfils who was coming off a title the week prior in a best-of-five contest at the Australian Open.

Ups and downs should be commonplace in his career since he lacks anything that will allow him to dominate regularly or create separation in matches.

Zhizhen Zhang Recent Form

Zhang has had a fairly rough start to the season. More than capable of showing up on the day, it’s not his talent that’s in question, so much as his ability to play at his best level with regularity, as well as the lack of dimension to his game and his rather low tennis IQ on the court.

It must be said though, he’s had a few tough draws as well. He’s had to play a lot of top-15 players in the early rounds of tournaments. Yet even his more manageable matches of late have seen him need a third set tiebreak to beat Quentin Halys and then he lost his first match in Doha against Luca Nardi last week.

If point construction and more patient, high-margin groundstrokes ever become part of the world No. 49’s game, watch out. Until then, I’d expect him to pull off some crazy upsets and lose a lot of his matches.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Zhizhen Zhang H2H – Stat of the Match

Zhang has the lone win in this matchup, as he beat the Frenchman back in the summer in Cincinnati. He even managed to break the massive serve of Mpetshi Perricard in quick conditions. We’ll see if he can repeat that Monday, though I’m not expecting much.

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