Corentin Moutet vs Thiago Monteiro Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 7th

It’s the final day of qualifying in the men’s draw before main draw tennis kicks off from the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Let’s look at an all-lefty matchup in Corentin vs Moutet vs Thiago Monteiro.

Our Moutet vs Monteiro prediction is for Moutet to win.

Monteiro’s win probability is 44.8% while Moutet is favored to win at 1.67 odds. The handicap is two games and the total game line is 22.5.

Moutet vs Monteiro Prediction: Moutet With Great Chance at Main Draw Slot

• Prediction: Moutet to win
• Best Odds: 1.67
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on May 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

In conditions more suited to aggressive clay courters (like Madrid last week and the week prior), I wouldn’t mind backing someone like Monteiro, especially as an underdog. His game is not only natural to clay courts but also well suited to keeping points short.

Moving to Rome where the play is much slower, I’m not sure I like the error-prone nature of his game against someone who can extend points as well as Moutet can, and his error-prone tendencies should come to the fore against the slice and dice game style the Frenchman can employ.

With Moutet’s game finally looking like it’s back to where it should be after a tough injury that kept him on the sidelines and then altered his backhand when he did return, I think he should be a larger favorite than we’re seeing at the monent.

Check out more previews from the Italian capital over on the expert insights page.

Corentin Moutet Recent Form

Now 17-10 on the season, the fiery Frenchman has played his entire 2024 season on the clay. Starting in South America during the Golden Swing, Moutet qualified for the main draw and reached the semifinals in Santiago, upsetting home favorite and defending champion Nicolas Jarry along the way.

He also managed to reach that stage at a high-level Challenger in Napoli, before making the quarterfinals in Bucharest (losing from a set up to the eventual champion) and then qualifying in Madrid and losing an absolute epic to Juncheng Shang that took about four hours to complete.

The key to his year is that the players he’s lost to, for the most part, and especially lately, have legitimate ATP Tour-level kinds of players.

Even then, he’s lost his last three contests in three sets, indicating that his level is enough to push or beat those in top 100 with regularity.

Throw in the matchup advantage he has here as the better mover, more consistent player, and the player with the more dynamic game and I’ll happily back him at this price.

Thiago Monteiro Recent Form

Much like Moutet, Monteiro has played the vast majority of his matches this season on the dirt. Outside of his loss in Miami, Monteiro did not play on the hard courts on tour in the early part of the season. He skipped the Australian swing – where he would’ve had to qualify for most tournaments – and elected to start his season late and play a Challenger in Uruguay.

It didn’t help much, with Monteiro having very little success, whether at the Challenger or main tour level, before Madrid. He won four times in the altitude of Madrid to help him boost his ranking back up a bit, but the conditions there were much more forgiving to his aggressive style and helped him keep points a bit shorter, avoiding longer rallies and unforced errors.

Back to sea level and he was almost pushed three by an ITF grinder in Giovani Oradini who has no offensive capabilities to speak of.

Moutet can do that, but has far more attacking prowess to his game and should be able to find far more success against Monteiro in the final qualifying round.

Corentin Moutet vs Thiago Monteiro H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played four times in their careers, splitting the series 2-2. It’s worth mentioning they haven’t played for years, and haven’t played on clay in even longer. Monteiro’s two wins against Moutet also both came a decade ago.

There isn’t a whole lot to read into when it comes to the head-to-head meetings between the two.

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